2018 recap, 2019 needs ...

[fourthandshort]

So just copying my post in other thread .. would love to hear other thoughts about what happened in 2018 that needs the most attention/improvement in 2019. Context of my response was a response to Madbird observation that given playoff results, our losses don't look as bad in hindsight.

****************************
Madbird,

agreed .. suddenly our 5 losses don't look as bad in rear view mirror, except for fact that we played badly against UNI. But if you look at NDSU and SDSU seasons, our losses to them were much closer than most of their games ... both on score board and in box score (i.e. stats). As for our 2 "weakest" losses, ISUb and MoST .. both teams were hot when we played them .. recall MoST was top 25 at time and we played horrible 1st half. Now compare our 2 weak losses this year to last year (NAU and SIU debacles). Also consider while 3 of our 5 losses were to playoff teams, ISUb was considered 1st team out, and further a consensus pick for most screwed team to not make playoffs over other 6-4 teams from much weaker conferences like Lamar, Incarnate Word from Southland. So really we had 4 of 5 losses to playoff teams.

I know, I know, I know ... we still finished 6-5 again, and out of playoffs for 2nd year in a row. But this was one of Spack's youngest 2 deeps ever, and we have quality players on our 2nd string ready to step up.

But couple issues that can't be argued need solving:

- Pass Game .. got to get our short-intermediate pass game on terack to keep defenses honest. A full offseason for Davis with our skill players can only help. Beathard had to narrow his playbook considerably at times because of this ... this really hurt us against good teams with good defenses.
- Field Position issues .. got to figure out what all contributed to certain game where we got killed in field position. I detailed this in another thread .. there were games where we lost 200 to 350 yards in field position. Many things contributed to this ... inconsistent pass game, special teams miscues on punt/kick coverage, inopportune penalties or turnovers. In our convincing wins, we usually broke even in field position (which says something in itself because we didn't need field position to win). But in our losses, we usually got destroyed in field position. The simple way to interpret importance of this stat ... if you have 225 yard field position disadvantage (15 drives, ours avg start at 22, theirs at 37), then we would have needed our offense to gain 225 MORE total yards just to break even in that game and give us a better chance to win.
- Position Group needs: need immediate help (someone step up or a transfer) at following positions: WR, placekicker, and then speedrusher at DE. I like our DL, but we need more speed at times. Also need our QB to get more proficient in short to intermediate pass game .... need offseason reps !!!!!!

I know people think I am too optimistic at times ... guilty as charged !!! but for good reasons, I think. In rear view mirror, our 5 losses were not as dire looking as many of us thought when they happened. But fact remains, we fell short again and there are things to fix. My point I guess is we're not as far away as it might seem.

p.s. the STX win may not have counted for playoffs, but what does it matter which division our "patsy" played in ... it was going to be an easy win regardless. And our SOS was top 10 again, so while the STX was completely stupid to schedule, this was a 6-5 team that was 2 very close losses from being an 8-3 team. And we played NDSU and SDSU closer than most teams. Yet here we sit watching playoffs.

 

[isuquinndog]

Kicking. Kicking. Kicking.

 

[Birdswin]

Just Special Teams in general - which kicking is a part. Special Teams has always been a problem with Coach Spack - I do not know why he looks at Special Teams with such disdain and does not allocate resources to them. I find it amazing. Must be the linebacker in him - I do not know, But, it has been a HUGE issue for his teams.

George Allen proved Special Teams can be the difference getting a team to the Super Bowl - same at all levels - they can get you over the "hump" - just look at the field position analysis performed by Fourth, if you need convincing - that was a BIG advantage to other teams this year.

 

[redbirds2000]

Need a QB transfer or hope that Baltz is super special.

 

[Reggie Redbird]

If we're looking at remaining FBS transfers: WR and OL help. It sounds like we're in the mix for both but need them to actually materialize on campus.

We had good field position when we missed a lot of FGs including several in crucial situations. No matter where we get the kicker from - incoming FR, transfer, someone stepping up - we need to make more FGs.

It may be we need someone more dedicated to ST strategy. We often will throw out our best guys on ST, but even Schnell made costly mistakes.

I agree with more of a ST passing game. Maybe that is a place Procter helps at RB. You could put both JR and him out there. I also think JR needs more carries. There were several instances where Smith would get bottled up for less than 2 YPC on a good amount of carries. Seems like some of those carries need to go to JR and others to other guys to see if they can gain more yards.

For our pass rush, we were often undersized. Hopefully some of our guys can throw 10-15 pounds or more on their frames versus getting outweighed by 75 or more pounds versus who they are trying to beat to the backfield. Without much size or push up the middle, we can't force teams to cover more of the interior and open up more outside pass rush opportunities.

We're solid at RB and LB right now, but it seems we still have room to get impact guys at every other position. The question we may have to ask is what transfer or incoming guy out there bolsters his position the most versus what we have.

 

[fourthandshort]

If we're looking at remaining FBS transfers: WR and OL help. It sounds like we're in the mix for both but need them to actually materialize on campus.

We had good field position when we missed a lot of FGs including several in crucial situations. No matter where we get the kicker from - incoming FR, transfer, someone stepping up - we need to make more FGs.

It may be we need someone more dedicated to ST strategy. We often will throw out our best guys on ST, but even Schnell made costly mistakes.

I agree with more of a ST passing game. Maybe that is a place Procter helps at RB. You could put both JR and him out there. I also think JR needs more carries. There were several instances where Smith would get bottled up for less than 2 YPC on a good amount of carries. Seems like some of those carries need to go to JR and others to other guys to see if they can gain more yards.

For our pass rush, we were often undersized. Hopefully some of our guys can throw 10-15 pounds or more on their frames versus getting outweighed by 75 or more pounds versus who they are trying to beat to the backfield. Without much size or push up the middle, we can't force teams to cover more of the interior and open up more outside pass rush opportunities.

We're solid at RB and LB right now, but it seems we still have room to get impact guys at every other position. The question we may have to ask is what transfer or incoming guy out there bolsters his position the most versus what we have.

i don't think our problem with pass rush (i.e. getting to QB) was lack of size ... once we got DT Podulski back . we went 325 and 290 inside at DT, and then 270 Lewan and 250 McNight at DE, with 245 Swaine rotating in at DE. All moved ok for their size, but only McNight was a speed rushing threat. the rest were big and/or tall. Agree we needed to get to QB more, but our containment in our front line was very very good. And I feel like we got ok pressure on QB, just not enough sacks.

I'm honestly still wrestling with the tradeoff, but very sure I like the overall results .. especially considering how much we lost from 2 years ago. We got less sacks but had much better containment ... our stats bear this out and we were right there with NDSU in every team stat except sacks. And I think all the picks we got this year is evidence that the strategy is working .. at least with this personnel group. If we weren't getting sacks or picks, that would be a problem ... you need one or the other for sure. Further evidence ... we had no games where defense broke down like last year (NAU and SIU) ... and last year's defense was very good if not for those 2 games.

But would love best of both worlds ... mainly need a speed rusher to supplement this defense (e.g. James Graham) , but nothing to lose sleep over ... our front 7 was very stout and consistent this year, and our secondary rarely got exposed by lack of sacks .... this in a year it should have taken a step back, but didn't. And we've got most of our 2 deep back next year.

 

[Total Red]

:text-+1: to 4ths last post. I'm not going to quote him. It's there. I think we're beating the quote button to death. I'm getting tired of scrolling through quotes to get to new posts.

 

[Total Red]

If we're looking at remaining FBS transfers: WR and OL help. It sounds like we're in the mix for both but need them to actually materialize on campus.

Yes awaiting materialization

"https://twitter.com/Pg_Reinhardt/status/1075542766946525184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 20,

 

[Redbirds100]

The better teams played UNI, ND State, SD State - the OL was a big source of ineffective 3 in out drives.

Colorado State was the best played game....

Field goal kicking received a grade of F....

2019 Schedule looking forward to NIU, ND St at home, and Northern Arizona payback(please pile on the score like they did)

 

[Chi-bird]

It's so hard to know how we stack up. I would think we should see improvement in all groups next season. I also think half of our 22 starters may be seniors. Next year could be a great one special.

I would love a big, athletic defensive rusher, a o-lineman or two, and if I'm greedy....a big WR who can be a threat on the edge and in the red zone. I'm counting on Big John being even stronger next season, and I think we'll have a great corps of linebackers and defensive backs. .Offensively, is where we need to see the most progress. If we can get decent improvement out of Davis we'll be much better next year and have a shot at winning the conference. If we see significant improvement out of him (and he stays healthy), and he finds some targets that he can mesh with, I like out chances of finishing in the top 8 and seeing a December game or two at Hancock.

Not wanting to get ahead of myself, but I fully plan on being in Frisco Texas in January 2020.

 

[StLRedbird]

When I think back on 2018 its dominated by the abrupt change from a steady, smart team thru 5 games, to a group that suddenly was making critical momentum-changing mistakes. Very un-Spack like. We had that surprising loss to Missouri St, but we were 4-1, in the top 10, and coming off a royal arse-whoopin' of Southern.

Then a disastrous mistake filled 2nd quarter against the Bizen started a run of games where we'd have an exasperating quarter of bone-headed mistakes, but compete well enough to win in the other three.

Weaknesses were exposed. A decent kicker would've likely prevented the MOST loss. At critical times, we were completely unable to mount a pass rush. We struggled at times to get WRs open or to open holes for RBs. RB - arguably our deepest position - saw #7 on the opening day depth chart get significant action.

But good things happened too. The secondary could play lock down defense at times and the DL/LBs were very stout against the run. The offense looked pretty good at times, but we really struggled to convert on third down against the better teams on the schedule.

 

[DannyCooksey]

As i look to 2019 I see a lot of "if's" and "Maybe's" etc. i don't see as many periods or exclamation points. lots and lots of ???'s.

Can the O-Line play consistently well enough to control games? open holes for the running backs and allow Davis to set his feet and throw on time? they showed flashes but didn;t sustain it.

Can we generate a pass rush with any consistency without blitzing? again.....flashes but nothing that lasted.

Can we find receivers to go with Edgar and Hailey? my biggest concern. There is a lot of PT to be had. who will take the open spot from schnell?

Is Gillum ready to be the tight end we've lacked since Shag was here? will we make the tight end a more focal point of the offense? i think we should.

Can we find more speed on offense? We need more big plays. it's hard to score consistently when it takes you 7-8-9-10 plays to get down the field.

Can we improve the special teams/kicking game?

are we hungry enough and determined enough to not let a bad loss spin a promising season into the toilet? can we rebound and recover from adversity?

how tough minded are we as a team?

 

[RBFANTOO]

So many needs, so little time:

• Special teams. Especially place kicking. Punt coverage was also very bad resulting in poor field position. Need an outstanding kick returner.

• Quality linemen.Both OL and DL are only mediocre. This is actually the primary need and where the Redbirds lose. It is so basic that you must control the line of scrimmage.We don't control it at all. This results in our QB getting sacked and not getting to our opponents QB. Also, not much space for our RBs to run through

• Coaching. Mostly vanilla. Poor special teams and defensive backfield coaching.

• Basic tackling technique. Too many missed tackles.

 

[fourthandshort]

So many needs, so little time:

• Special teams. Especially place kicking. Punt coverage was also very bad resulting in poor field position. Need an outstanding kick returner.

• Quality linemen.Both OL and DL are only mediocre. This is actually the primary need and where the Redbirds lose. It is so basic that you must control the line of scrimmage.We don't control it at all. This results in our QB getting sacked and not getting to our opponents QB. Also, not much space for our RBs to run through

• Coaching. Mostly vanilla. Poor special teams and defensive backfield coaching.

• Basic tackling technique. Too many missed tackles.

RBFan ... I'm not sure you paid very close attention to how strong our defense was this year ... for me, it was a great year on that side of the ball, other than sacks. We were right there (call it a smidge) behind NDSU in every meaningful team defense stat

Here is final team stats for MVFC team: we're 1st or 2nd in almost every important team defensive state. Note, we are 2nd in most categories for total yards per game, but first in total yards per play. Only weak stat was sacks.

http://www.mvc.org/football/stats/team.pdf

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

So many needs, so little time:

• Special teams. Especially place kicking. Punt coverage was also very bad resulting in poor field position. Need an outstanding kick returner.

• Quality linemen.Both OL and DL are only mediocre. This is actually the primary need and where the Redbirds lose. It is so basic that you must control the line of scrimmage.We don't control it at all. This results in our QB getting sacked and not getting to our opponents QB. Also, not much space for our RBs to run through

• Coaching. Mostly vanilla. Poor special teams and defensive backfield coaching.

• Basic tackling technique. Too many missed tackles.

RBFan ... I'm not sure you paid very close attention to how strong our defense was this year ... for me, it was a great year on that side of the ball, other than sacks. We were right there (call it a smidge) behind NDSU in every meaningful team defense stat

Here is final team stats for MVFC team: we're 1st or 2nd in almost every important team defensive state. Note, we are 2nd in most categories for total yards per game, but first in total yards per play. Only weak stat was sacks.

http://www.mvc.org/football/stats/team.pdf

How does one factor in the poor Redbird field position,that you have discussed several times, when analyzing how effective ISU’s defense was especially on total yards allowed? I suspect that ISU did not give up as many yards in part due to fact that opponent’s successful drives were shorter due to advantageous field position.

 

[MadBird]

So many needs, so little time:

• Special teams. Especially place kicking. Punt coverage was also very bad resulting in poor field position. Need an outstanding kick returner.

• Quality linemen.Both OL and DL are only mediocre. This is actually the primary need and where the Redbirds lose. It is so basic that you must control the line of scrimmage.We don't control it at all. This results in our QB getting sacked and not getting to our opponents QB. Also, not much space for our RBs to run through

• Coaching. Mostly vanilla. Poor special teams and defensive backfield coaching.

• Basic tackling technique. Too many missed tackles.

RBFan ... I'm not sure you paid very close attention to how strong our defense was this year ... for me, it was a great year on that side of the ball, other than sacks. We were right there (call it a smidge) behind NDSU in every meaningful team defense stat

Here is final team stats for MVFC team: we're 1st or 2nd in almost every important team defensive state. Note, we are 2nd in most categories for total yards per game, but first in total yards per play. Only weak stat was sacks.

http://www.mvc.org/football/stats/team.pdf

I thought the D was pretty good for the most part.

Makes me wonder tho, how much help we'll get from two guys - we get the "new" Iowa transfer at LB, Aaron Mends, listed at 6'0 230 lbs., 13 tackles over 3 years at Iowa isn't overwhelming; and our injury RS LB from last year, Paul Engram, listed at 5'11, 225 lbs., had 69 tackles in 2017 at College of DuPage. I like our LB corps from last year, and think it looks pretty good for next w/o these two guys. Not sure either of these guys will provide a huge boost. And then there's Josh Barajas, the Notre Dame transfer who really has never jumped out (injured?).

Never hurts to work on tackling technique tho!

 

[fourthandshort]

So many needs, so little time:

• Special teams. Especially place kicking. Punt coverage was also very bad resulting in poor field position. Need an outstanding kick returner.

• Quality linemen.Both OL and DL are only mediocre. This is actually the primary need and where the Redbirds lose. It is so basic that you must control the line of scrimmage.We don't control it at all. This results in our QB getting sacked and not getting to our opponents QB. Also, not much space for our RBs to run through

• Coaching. Mostly vanilla. Poor special teams and defensive backfield coaching.

• Basic tackling technique. Too many missed tackles.

RBFan ... I'm not sure you paid very close attention to how strong our defense was this year ... for me, it was a great year on that side of the ball, other than sacks. We were right there (call it a smidge) behind NDSU in every meaningful team defense stat

Here is final team stats for MVFC team: we're 1st or 2nd in almost every important team defensive state. Note, we are 2nd in most categories for total yards per game, but first in total yards per play. Only weak stat was sacks.

http://www.mvc.org/football/stats/team.pdf

How does one factor in the poor Redbird field position,that you have discussed several times, when analyzing how effective ISU’s defense was especially on total yards allowed? I suspect that ISU did not give up as many yards in part due to fact that opponent’s successful drives were shorter due to advantageous field position.

Good question ... but that would mainly impact potential for yards per game, which we were usually in 2nd place. So per play stats have little to do with field position and we did even better there. Which when you further consider NDSU offense controlled the run game and time of possession, while we struggled to consistently move ball ... our offense was dead last in 3rd down conversions, while NDSU offense was first in 3rd down conversions ... so their offense stayed on field much more consistently than ours - meaning their defense was on field less than ours.

Back to "per play" stats ... We ranked first in MVFC in defensive yards per play in run game, pass game, and total yards ... so that stat doesn't matter where you are on field .. except maybe once inside the 10 yard line. But we were 2nd in red zone defense as well ... that is, 2nd lowest % scored upon once in red zone and 2nd least # times our opponent got into our red zone. Also 2nd in opponent 1st downs, and 2nd in points given up. All of which means, our defense dealt with bad field position very well .. again, mainly in our losses to th best 4 teams in MVFC ... which says something.

Here is total defense .. 4.5 yards per play which was lower than NDSU and WIU at 4.7. We tied for #1 with NDSU at 3.3 rush yards per play. And at 6.0 yards per pass play on defense, we were #1 and better than NDSU at 6.5 and WIU at 6.4.

TOTAL DEFENSE G Rush PassPlays Yards Avg/P TD Avg/G
1. North Dakota St. 14 1561 2421 852 3982 4.7 19 284.4
2. Illinois State 11 1395 2013 756 3408 4.5 26 309.8
3. Western Illinois 11 1501 2119 766 3620 4.7 28 329.1
4. Youngstown State 11 1821 2148 697 3969 5.7 38 360.8
5. Northern Iowa 13 1734 3015 881 4749 5.4 34 365.3
6. South Dakota St. 13 2447 2568 884 5015 5.7 37 385.8
7. South Dakota 11 2322 2411 802 4733 5.9 43 430.3
Indiana State 11 2174 2559 812 4733 5.8 36 430.3
9. Missouri State 11 2448 2740 822 5188 6.3 50 471.6
10 Southern Illinois 11 2434 2883 781 5317 6.8 56 483.4

p.s. NDSU stats are still change each week in playoffs .. but they're smoking everyone, so mostly getting better.

 

[StLRedbird]

... our offense was dead last in 3rd down conversions, while NDSU offense was first in 3rd down conversions ...

I knew we were not good in this regard, but dead last? Gotta say, this is not what I was expecting from Beathard. Trying to think of a consistent theme, but can't. We didn't convert in short yardage situations. We didn't covert in passing situations. We have to fix this to compete for a Valley title next year.

 

[Reggie Redbird]

It looks like we need a new WR coach; Brian Anderson going to coach at K-State.

 

[fourthandshort]

... our offense was dead last in 3rd down conversions, while NDSU offense was first in 3rd down conversions ...

I knew we were not good in this regard, but dead last? Gotta say, this is not what I was expecting from Beathard. Trying to think of a consistent theme, but can't. We didn't convert in short yardage situations. We didn't covert in passing situations. We have to fix this to compete for a Valley title next year.

agreed, with how planets aligned in our run game, we should have had more ability to extend drives even with an inconsistent QB. Some of this is on Davis, but more of this is on Beathard. He figured out how to deal with Robersons passing limitations, similar to Davis. But Roberson was serious run threat and that 2014 team had a better OL and had much better WRs/TE ... got an OL, WR, and TE all still in NFL from 2014 team.

I still believe in Beathard, and I have zero doubt we were better off than we would have been with Dicken ... but he obviously did not have the impact I touted. Excuses sound weak .. but wondering if he lost some focus during season with his wife getting cancer again. She was getting treatment in season and had to travel to/from Houston I believe.