Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

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dpdoughbird06

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ISU86 said:
"Technically", since Drake and Indiana State split their regular season series, if they were to end in a tie (Bulldogs win, Sycamores lose) it would still come down to NET (which currently shows InSU at 28 and DU at 50). My guess is the probability of their rank flip-flopping based on remaining results is less than 0.5% (possible but not probable).

Same holds true for four seed with Belmont, Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois all currently tied (Bruins 123, Panthers 121, Salukis 107). The Bruins will tie for either fourth or fifth place with whichever school (Panthers, Salukis) has the same outcome (loss or win) in their match-up as BeU does with UE (since they split their regular season series with both UNI and SIU).

The game to watch on Sunday is Cedar Falls at Carbondale. The winner (assuming NET holds) gets the four seed and the loser is five or six (depending on the outcome in Nashville).

As for us, we are seventh seed (and match-up with Purple Aces Thursday at 6:00 PM) with either a Racers loss or Redbirds win; if neither occurs, we are eighth seed (and play the Bears Thursday at noon).
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Drake over Bradley would be a very solid win, and Murray taking down the Trees would be a relatively bad loss. Enough to move them a collective 22 spots in NET at the end of the regular season? Probably not, but maybe…

Either way, those two teams won’t be letting up since the various postseason committees always look for a reason to exclude a mid-major, and now even an NIT bid for the conference winner is no longer assured.
 
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Redbird222

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RedbirdSoxFan said:
#6 Seed IF:
Murray beats Belmont
Illinois State beats Missouri State
Evansville wins @ Belmont
Murray State loses @ Indiana State
Illinois State wins @ Valparai
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ScoreboardDotRace said:
He’s not wrong though. Even under the old format a 7 seed is a Thursday night team.

That said. A 7th place finish is an improvement over last year, and an improvement over the pre season prediction. Win at least one in STL and I won’t have much to complain about. Playing well at the right time.
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There are two more teams so you could also argue the 7th seed in not in the bottom 4
 
A

Aggie

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To me it doesn’t matter how many teams, etc. To go to the dance the easiest road is starting on Friday not Thursday. To get Redbird Basketball back to our “glory days” we need to consistently avoid Thursday night each and every year. Top four league finish every year should be a benchmark goal.
 
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DoubleDeuce

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I saw on the valley board that Southern and Northern Iowa got theirs. Bradley will be sending theirs out on tuesday.
 
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DoubleDeuce

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Ticketmaster will email our tickets today. Keep in mind the email will have customer service as the sender.
 
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Dmills

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I never see any push to bring students to Arch Madness and it is such a shame. Back in the prime days of Arch Madness, there were great student sections for the top teams. I never even see a student rate advertised by the MVC or by ISU. I wish the MVC would work towards a solution on that. Arch Madness is a great mid major tournament but it is not where it was during the Creighton and Wichita State days.
 
crazzymark

crazzymark

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Valparaiso will win the Missouri valley after Drake leaves this year
 
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