WIU Game (10/19/2019)

[fourthandshort]

Road game versus WIU this saturday is at 1pm. Game will be streamed on ESPN+. Weather forecast as today is 69 and 60% chance of spotty showers.

So most years, I would sya something like ... WIU is tough, they always play us tough, but I expect to win a close game. This year, that does not appear to be the case. I must say, WIU has hung tough in football despite considerably tougher headwinds compared to ISUr.

Road games should never be taken for granted in MVFC. WIU played a very good Mont St tough losing by 9 at home. They just lost to ISUb by 10 on road. So they are still capable of playing good teams tough. Yet they are 0-6 and lost to a few week teams too. Offensively, they are pretty weak running and passing. Defensively,

But the one stat that jumps off the page ... ISUr defense is #1 in sacks in FCS with 30 in 6 games, which is 5 per game. In last 4 games, we have 24 sacks, so 6 per game despite getting just 1 against NDSU. WIU is giving up 4 sacks per game ... which ranks them last in MVFC and 121st (of 124) in FCS. So I would not be surprised to see a stat line like 8 to 10 sacks, plus another 5 to 10 QBHs this week. Hard to imagine any scenario where their offense and QB deals with this for 4 qtrs without collapsing at some point.

Note EIU has given up 18 sacks and ranks 94th, but 9 of those 18 were against ISU. SIU ranks 115th with 20 sacks, but again, 9 of those were from our game. NAU wanks 23rd with just 8 sacks .. 5 of those were ISU, plus we had an off the charts 15 QBHs that game. Think about that in those 3 games alone .. each had played 6 games, 1 against us, and 23 of their combined 46 sacks allowd .. thats 50% were against ISUr. Hard to ignore that statistical advantage.

Look for a lot of quick 3-5 step drops and rollouts, read options from WIU. This one may get a little ugly at times. And I say that with a lot of respect for a program that has given us fits over the years. This just doesnt look like the year for them.

 

[MadBird]

I know many of us long-time fans have memories of getting kicked in the groin by the Turkeynecks more than once. They have been to me a "better" rivalry than EIU, a tougher opponent, I dislike them more. Maybe it's just that I had more pals going there when I was in school.

Couple thoughts:

I see a starter for WIU at DT is Lacale London. Someone else may remember the whole saga, but he was a commit, and I think a signee, to ISU out of HS. Never showed up here. Ended up at JC, his bio shows he played there in 2016, no playing anywhere in 2017, and he was with WIU last year. Just an interesting factoid.

WIU has only 4 rushing TD's in 6 games, and rushing for less than 100 per game (98 ypg). Pretty grim. They're averaging 18 points per game, not all that bad really. And 200 ypg passing. 23% on 3rd down conversions.

ISU is only averaging 22 point per game, and we're rushing for 175 ypg. We've only given up 3 rushing TD's.

They seem to have a pretty experienced two-deep, so kind of surprising they're winless. I like our chances.

 

[ST_Lawson]

So most years, I would sya something like ... WIU is tough, they always play us tough, but I expect to win a close game. This year, that does not appear to be the case. I must say, WIU has hung tough in football despite considerably tougher headwinds compared to ISUr.
...
This one may get a little ugly at times. And I say that with a lot of respect for a program that has given us fits over the years. This just doesnt look like the year for them.

I appreciate the kind words, but yeah...we're horrible this year. Our offensive line is little more than a speedbump to most MVFC D-lines and our QB doesn't have the toughness or mobility that Sean McGuire had. If we allow single-digit sacks this game, I'll be amazed. We might be able to stay close up to the midway point (seem to do ok in the first half...led at halftime both of our last two games, and were tied at halftime against Montana State)...but I expect we'll get steamrolled in the second half as our defense gets tired from spending so much time on the field.

 

[fourthandshort]

Road game versus WIU this saturday is at 1pm. Game will be streamed on ESPN+. Weather forecast as today is 69 and 60% chance of spotty showers.

So most years, I would sya something like ... WIU is tough, they always play us tough, but I expect to win a close game. This year, that does not appear to be the case. I must say, WIU has hung tough in football despite considerably tougher headwinds compared to ISUr.

Road games should never be taken for granted in MVFC. WIU played a very good Mont St tough losing by 9 at home. They just lost to ISUb by 10 on road. So they are still capable of playing good teams tough. Yet they are 0-6 and lost to a few week teams too. Offensively, they are pretty weak running and passing. Defensively,

But the one stat that jumps off the page ... ISUr defense is #1 in sacks in FCS with 30 in 6 games, which is 5 per game. In last 4 games, we have 24 sacks, so 6 per game despite getting just 1 against NDSU. WIU is giving up 4 sacks per game ... which ranks them last in MVFC and 121st (of 124) in FCS. So I would not be surprised to see a stat line like 8 to 10 sacks, plus another 5 to 10 QBHs this week. Hard to imagine any scenario where their offense and QB deals with this for 4 qtrs without collapsing at some point.

Note EIU has given up 18 sacks and ranks 94th, but 9 of those 18 were against ISU. SIU ranks 115th with 20 sacks, but again, 9 of those were from our game. NAU wanks 23rd with just 8 sacks .. 5 of those were ISU, plus we had an off the charts 15 QBHs that game. Think about that in those 3 games alone .. each had played 6 games, 1 against us, and 23 of their combined 46 sacks allowd .. thats 50% were against ISUr. Hard to ignore that statistical advantage.

Look for a lot of quick 3-5 step drops and rollouts, read options from WIU. This one may get a little ugly at times. And I say that with a lot of respect for a program that has given us fits over the years. This just doesnt look like the year for them.

Forgot to finish my "Defensively," thoughts .... was going to say, they don't rank well defensively either, but that is likely due to how much time they spend on the field with an offense that can't move chains ... I think we can relate to that at times. So my guess is their defense will be more stout than their stats suggest. Lawson .. is this the case ???

And per my SIU after game post, I am starting to like QB Davis renewed sense of confidence in the pocket. I was harder on him than most here. Amd this may sound stupid, but he needed to hit bottom first ... I can see him continuing to improve his game performances the rest of way. Just got to hang tough in pocket and stay humble .. or the game will humble you real fast !!!

 

[ST_Lawson]

Forgot to finish my "Defensively," thoughts .... was going to say, they don't rank well defensively either, but that is likely due to how much time they spend on the field with an offense that can't move chains ... I think we can relate to that at times. So my guess is their defense will be more stout than their stats suggest. Lawson .. is this the case ???

Pretty much exactly correct. Like I mentioned, we can hang in there in the first half pretty well usually, when the defense still has energy. There's only so many 3-and-out's that the offense can put up before the defense just wears down. Second half they'll have trouble stopping guys.

In the FCS, WIU is dead last in 3rd down conversions (23.3%)...right behind EIU, actually. 108th (out of 124) in first downs. We're 97th in time of possession, and I'd bet if you broke it down by half, we're worse in the first half than the second half. In the first half, the offense gives the ball back right away but the defense slows down the other team. In the second half, the offense gives the ball back right away and the defense gives up all the yards.

 

[saxman210]

If Redbird Football is going to make the playoffs, they need to beat WIU by no small margin. The Birds need to be 6-2 after homecoming. With a split of the last 4 games (Gonna have to beat at least one of SDSU, UNI or YSU) and MOST. They end up 8-4, with the loss vs NIU not hurting as much as the other three. 8 wins gets us a playoff spot, in my opinion. Losing to SDSU, UNI and YSU would have us on the wrong side of the bubble.

 

[fourthandshort]

If Redbird Football is going to make the playoffs, they need to beat WIU by no small margin. The Birds need to be 6-2 after homecoming. With a split of the last 4 games (Gonna have to beat at least one of SDSU, UNI or YSU) and MOST. They end up 8-4, with the loss vs NIU not hurting as much as the other three. 8 wins gets us a playoff spot, in my opinion. Losing to SDSU, UNI and YSU would have us on the wrong side of the bubble.

Good assessment of what is left to do to ensure playoffs ... 7-5 will not be good enough .. we've got a few too many weak wins and losses so far. Need big wins over teams like WIU and MoST (3+ TD margins would help), comfortable win over ISUb (10+ points). Then like you said ... beat at least 1 of the big remaining 3 ... SDSU (road), UNI (home), and YSU (road). I think we usually match up well with YSU, and UNI is looking a little more vulnerable now than earlier in season. I think they've had a few injuries ... but so have we. SDSU on road will be a tall order. Not ruling out 9-3 yet ... I like the where we are now after 6 games a lot more than it looked after 3 games, despite the NDSU flop.

It starts with beating WIU convincingly. Doing that will look good compared to Mont St and ISUB games they played.

 

[JHBird]

So most years, I would sya something like ... WIU is tough, they always play us tough, but I expect to win a close game. This year, that does not appear to be the case. I must say, WIU has hung tough in football despite considerably tougher headwinds compared to ISUr.
...
This one may get a little ugly at times. And I say that with a lot of respect for a program that has given us fits over the years. This just doesnt look like the year for them.

I appreciate the kind words, but yeah...we're horrible this year. Our offensive line is little more than a speedbump to most MVFC D-lines and our QB doesn't have the toughness or mobility that Sean McGuire had. If we allow single-digit sacks this game, I'll be amazed. We might be able to stay close up to the midway point (seem to do ok in the first half...led at halftime both of our last two games, and were tied at halftime against Montana State)...but I expect we'll get steamrolled in the second half as our defense gets tired from spending so much time on the field.

McGuire was a good one. I'm glad we don't have to face him anymore!

 

[birdsflyhigh]

Heading to Macomb for the game and looking forward toward to seeing the Birds take on the Necks.

GO YOU REDBIRDS! :happy-bouncyred:

 

[MadBird]

Future opponents:

WIU (0-5) at Macomb
InSU (3-3) at home
UNI (3-3) at home
SDSU (5-1) at Brookings
Mo. State (1-4) at home
YSU (4-2) at Youngstown

2 of 6 games vs. teams with winning records, both on the road. One road game vs. a winless team. 3 home games vs. teams with a combined record of 7-10, none over .500.

This should be doable. Spack can restore some faith by "willing" a playoff run from here. Brady Davis can restore some faith. J Rob deserves a run, and deserves a shot at carrying us there. This defense can pull it altogether and be the backbone.

I plan on being at all remaining home games and am hoping for the best. I've had a crappy fall as far as attendance conflicts are concerned. There's a lot to like about this team, some great players here. Gotta believe!!

 

[Phantom]

WIU has pissed in our Cheerios far too many times over the years.

Don't let it happen again.

Win. Shit else matters.

 

[RBFANTOO]

McGuire was a good one. I'm glad we don't have to face him anymore!

Totally agree. Wish we could find a QB like him.

 

[chuckie1980]

ISU 43
WIU 28

 

[cpacmel]

Illinois State -13.5

Over / under 37.5

 

[MadBird]

Illinois State -13.5

Over / under 37.5

Yeah, I'll make a prediction later, but this seems about right to me, something in the 28-10 range, 35-17.

 

[Total Red]

I'm going to make the trip this time so I Google mapped the trip to Macomb and all I got back was "Why"?

Ok I get it. I've made the trip before and both the journey and destination were forgettable but nothing bad has ever happened to me at Western and it should be another Redbird FB victory. So journey to the Land of Lawson I will and if the Purple Haze doesn't get me maybe I'll remember it this time.

Keys to victory - Score more points (why do we always overcomplicate this). Well also I expect WIU to dink and dunk with the short pass game to avoid our pass rush so our secondary has to tackle well to keep short completions from turning into long ones. Offensively-get the ball to our playmakers Robinson and Rutkiewicz. I meant to add in my SIU post that fullback Carl is coming along. I'd still like to have McCoyn back as a lead blocker but Carl is getting after it as well and as a TE by trade he's a better receiver out of the backfield. It's good to spread the ball around but do we have anyone that can turn a short pass into a big play better than Rutkiewicz? He's a growing boy. Feed him.

 

[Reggie Redbird]

I will lead off by saying ST_Lawson is one of my favorite posters from a rival school. I don't think you would will ever hear anything but good football talk come out of his mouth. ST_Lawson, you are always welcome at our tailgates when you play here. Bring your friends too.

WIU is having a rough year. Every program has them, well, except NDSU. Their 'rough' as of late is not making the championship game. We seem to have a game each year against a team having a 'rough' year, so I will not count this one in the win column unless we have more points on the scoreboard at the end of the game.

This is a must-win if we want to make the playoffs. Our DL and LBs can't just assume WIU will give up sacks, but if they play like they have so far this year, they will earn them.

Don't let their short passing game turn into long runs where they burst through our secondary. That's how SIU got its points - missed tackles on a short pass. We had 2-3 opportunities to bring their receiver down but couldn't do it.

 

[StLRedbird]

I think they're gonna have trouble moving the ball consistently. We should be able to generate enough offense to control the game. One thing is for sure, Spack won't run the score up. Not his style. Something of a trap game - just get a comfortable win with no major injuries.

'birds 24
Leathernecks 6

 

[ST_Lawson]

I will lead off by saying ST_Lawson is one of my favorite posters from a rival school. I don't think you would will ever hear anything but good football talk come out of his mouth. ST_Lawson, you are always welcome at our tailgates when you play here. Bring your friends too.

WIU is having a rough year. Every program has them, well, except NDSU. Their 'rough' as of late is not making the championship game. We seem to have a game each year against a team having a 'rough' year, so I will not count this one in the win column unless we have more points on the scoreboard at the end of the game.

This is a must-win if we want to make the playoffs. Our DL and LBs can't just assume WIU will give up sacks, but if they play like they have so far this year, they will earn them.

Don't let their short passing game turn into long runs where they burst through our secondary. That's how SIU got its points - missed tackles on a short pass. We had 2-3 opportunities to bring their receiver down but couldn't do it.

Thanks for the kind words. Looks like we'll be back at your place in late October next year, so I might have to stop by and say hi. Despite the long stretches of cornfield, it's a fairly easy trip for me, so I'll probably be there.

There's "rough"...and then there's "ROUGH".
When we (WIU) went 1-10 after losing our starting QB early in the season and having coaching issues in 2009...that was rough. We had some decent players though, and the next year we rebounded, went 7-4 and 1-1 in the playoffs (losing in a snowstorm at App State) and had finalists in all 3 of the individual FCS awards (Payton, Buchanan, and Robinson awards).

This season...this is ROUGH. If we somehow pull out a win in a game this year and finish 1-11, we'll still set the school record for most losses in a season. Going 0-12 would be our first winless season since 1944 (0-8) and the way things feel, I don't think this is a "fluke" year. I don't think we'll keep going winless for multiple seasons or anything, but it feels like reaching even a .500 record in a season is going to be a struggle at least for the next few years. Our O-line is going to need to get a LOT better before we have a chance of winning against most of the conference teams. It's a pretty young line currently, so maybe it's just something that'll come with experience...we'll see.

Anyway, for those who are interested, here's an article about some of the issues with WIU and EIU football (and a few of the reasons): http://www.chicagonow.com/prairie-state-pigskin/2019/10/panthers-leathernecks-among-eight-winless-fcs-teams/

 

[fourthandshort]

I will lead off by saying ST_Lawson is one of my favorite posters from a rival school. I don't think you would will ever hear anything but good football talk come out of his mouth. ST_Lawson, you are always welcome at our tailgates when you play here. Bring your friends too.

WIU is having a rough year. Every program has them, well, except NDSU. Their 'rough' as of late is not making the championship game. We seem to have a game each year against a team having a 'rough' year, so I will not count this one in the win column unless we have more points on the scoreboard at the end of the game.

This is a must-win if we want to make the playoffs. Our DL and LBs can't just assume WIU will give up sacks, but if they play like they have so far this year, they will earn them.

Don't let their short passing game turn into long runs where they burst through our secondary. That's how SIU got its points - missed tackles on a short pass. We had 2-3 opportunities to bring their receiver down but couldn't do it.

Thanks for the kind words. Looks like we'll be back at your place in late October next year, so I might have to stop by and say hi. Despite the long stretches of cornfield, it's a fairly easy trip for me, so I'll probably be there.

There's "rough"...and then there's "ROUGH".
When we (WIU) went 1-10 after losing our starting QB early in the season and having coaching issues in 2009...that was rough. We had some decent players though, and the next year we rebounded, went 7-4 and 1-1 in the playoffs (losing in a snowstorm at App State) and had finalists in all 3 of the individual FCS awards (Payton, Buchanan, and Robinson awards).

This season...this is ROUGH. If we somehow pull out a win in a game this year and finish 1-11, we'll still set the school record for most losses in a season. Going 0-12 would be our first winless season since 1944 (0-8) and the way things feel, I don't think this is a "fluke" year. I don't think we'll keep going winless for multiple seasons or anything, but it feels like reaching even a .500 record in a season is going to be a struggle at least for the next few years. Our O-line is going to need to get a LOT better before we have a chance of winning against most of the conference teams. It's a pretty young line currently, so maybe it's just something that'll come with experience...we'll see.

Anyway, for those who are interested, here's an article about some of the issues with WIU and EIU football (and a few of the reasons): http://www.chicagonow.com/prairie-state-pigskin/2019/10/panthers-leathernecks-among-eight-winless-fcs-teams/

wish nothing but the best for WIU ... except for this Saturday !!! Looking for decisive win with ZERO injuries ... well, except for a few hard fought bruises for your Leathernecks !!!!

Didnt you mom work at the school .. is her job safe ?