Success in Pedon's first year

WSpringsBird

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I thought it might be interesting to lay out what we think success in Pedon's first year might look like. Just to get the conversation started, for me success would look something like:

1. Record near .500 or above.
2. Less unwanted player turnover at the end of the year than we have experienced in recent years.
3. Team consistently plays really hard, smart defense.
4. Solid fundamentals on offense, too (reasonable # of turnovers, good off-ball movement, no chucking up long 3s with a lot of time left on the shot clock, etc.).
5. Increased excitement about the basketball program, due in part to strong community and alumni engagement.
6. High character on and off the court.

I tried to stick to things that it might be reasonable, albeit difficult, for Pedon to deliver in his first year. Obviously, there are a whole lot of other things that would be great but probably none of us think are reasonable to expect in Year 1, like winning the conference tourney. I would be thrilled if Pedon could deliver on all six of those points.

But what am I missing? Where am I being unrealistic?
 

BirdGrad2011

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I’m looking more towards body language and a team that gets better as the year goes on. Wins and losses won’t be a huge impact for me on the success of year one. At a minimum I expect a more disciplined team that gives their all.
 

Bird Friend

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It's only a success if Pedon demonstrates a close proximity to the Stallings stare and we win the game.
 

ISU86

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Not worried about 1.) or 5.) for this season
2.) has pretty much set sail for all college athletics
3.), 4.) & 6.) are reasonable for this season
 

DoubleDeuce

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My impression is that Pedon is focused on bringing in team first, not me first guys. I expect good team play with effective ball movement and communication. Expectations will be low but I'd like to see us wearing white jerseys on Thursday in St. Louis at worst.
 

Adunk33

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My impression is that Pedon is focused on bringing in team first, not me first guys. I expect good team play with effective ball movement and communication. Expectations will be low but I'd like to see us wearing white jerseys on Thursday in St. Louis at worst.
Seeds that will wear white on Thursday: 5, 6, 7 and 8.

Seems reasonable for year 1 to finish above Evansville, UIC, Indy State, and probably Valpo.

Win or lose, just put a product on the court fans can be proud of.
 

redbirdron1

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I'd guess Pedon will possess the skill to manage a .500 plus record with this group. What I'm most curious about is if the Fan Base
will come out again?
1. - we will see a significant increase in Season Tic sales?
2. Just a small uptick in Seasons as fans play wait and see?

3. If we'd avg 5,500 across season, I'd say that's a nice real nice first season.

Thoughts?
 

Adunk33

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I'd guess Pedon will possess the skill to manage a .500 plus record with this group. What I'm most curious about is if the Fan Base
will come out again?
1. - we will see a significant increase in Season Tic sales?
2. Just a small uptick in Seasons as fans play wait and see?

3. If we'd avg 5,500 across season, I'd say that's a nice real nice first season.

Thoughts?
Reported attendance numbers be damned, if they avg 5500, that would be close to double what last season was.

That said....I'm very likely getting my season tix back for the first time since pre-COVID. My reservation is going to be price. Sounds like Football prices increased with a poor product on the field. I'm not sure how the AD could justify a rise in price for hoops.
 

isuquinndog

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I mean number 4 is how college basketball is played. So if you want to see Hoosiers style basketball, go watch the movie. It ain't coming back.
 

WSpringsBird

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I mean number 4 is how college basketball is played. So if you want to see Hoosiers style basketball, go watch the movie. It ain't coming back.
I get the emphasis on "good" 3s and the obvious math behind it, but when mid-majors are successful, it seems like good fundamentals on offense are always part of it. For example, not just in Loyola's Final Four run but also even in that tourney win over Illinois, the boring fundamentals were a big part of the team's success. How many times did Krutwig hit a wide-open Williamson or Kennedy cutting to the basket in that game? Three or four? Meanwhile, I felt like, in recent years, often lived and died by the especially low-percentage 3-pointer that followed a bunch of people standing around for 15 seconds.

I will confess that our lack of recent success may have colored my memories!
 

Birgs

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1. Record near .500 or above.
A push on the W-L ledger is a reasonable expectation, without being over ambitious in Year 1. Special forgiveness consider our best player will be playing for Kentucky and two "replacements" are one-and-done. Treading water vs. growth.

2. Less unwanted player turnover at the end of the year than we have experienced in recent years.
The in-and-out of the portal will be inevitable, but he does seem to have strategy of guys looking for their own floors than ceilings and building foundation.

3. Team consistently plays really hard, smart defense.
Sounds great on paper. We seem increasingly un-athletic.

4. Solid fundamentals on offense, too (reasonable # of turnovers, good off-ball movement, no chucking up long 3s with a lot of time left on the shot clock, etc.).
Meh. What is a solid metric of "reasonable # of turnovers"; what constitutes "good off-ball movement"; why pass up an open 3? Put your peach basket away and join 2022.

5. Increased excitement about the basketball program, due in part to strong community and alumni engagement.
Coach Muller was more engaged than any of his predecessors. Just because the "new guy" uses his platform to allow his child to do a podcast is a slippery slope.

6. High character on and off the court.
This will become increasingly crucial as portal/NIL/realignments/affiliations continue. One thing I really smiled at with each of Pedon's commits, were consistency in bruisers and ballers dedicated to ISU for PARTICULAR academic foci
 

WSpringsBird

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I'll concede on the 3-point issue. After looking it up, I have to admit our percentage last year was much higher than I remembered.
 

Birgs

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Some pulls from the Panty, and sure they're summer quotes, but I'm getting a vibe of immediacy - almost raising expectations rather than rebuild:

SANDAGE:
"It feels like a brotherhood already and a family."

"There was blood. That's what you love to see on a new team, everyone coming together and everyone hungry."

"Everyone in workouts wants to get better and they're getting better. It's a real hungry team that plays hard."


KNIGHT:
"It feels like a brotherhood already and a family."

It also sounds like the young staffers hit the hardwood and the weights with the guys. This could be a very extremely attractive locker room come recruiting time.
 

Hamdonger

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I'd guess Pedon will possess the skill to manage a .500 plus record with this group. What I'm most curious about is if the Fan Base
will come out again?
1. - we will see a significant increase in Season Tic sales?
2. Just a small uptick in Seasons as fans play wait and see?

3. If we'd avg 5,500 across season, I'd say that's a nice real nice first season.

Thoughts?
In the 28 win 2016-17 season ISU averaged 5900 fans and some change.

We ain't hittin' 5500...although I sure hope we do. And watching pregame for last several years and the monotone buzz attached to it...it's going to take a LARGE momentum swing to wake up our dead and sparse crowd.
 

Hamdonger

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Some pulls from the Panty, and sure they're summer quotes, but I'm getting a vibe of immediacy - almost raising expectations rather than rebuild:

SANDAGE:
"It feels like a brotherhood already and a family."

"There was blood. That's what you love to see on a new team, everyone coming together and everyone hungry."

"Everyone in workouts wants to get better and they're getting better. It's a real hungry team that plays hard."


KNIGHT:
"It feels like a brotherhood already and a family."

It also sounds like the young staffers hit the hardwood and the weights with the guys. This could be a very extremely attractive locker room come recruiting time.
Nothing personal. These quotes are like recruit highlight tapes. They really mean nothing and tell you very little.
 
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