Season predictions

Total Red

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6-5 without playoffs. I started August thinking it might be a 5-6 season. The QB situation needed to improve and it has improved. Jefferson has been more accurate and the QB's appear to be working on faster reads with quicker releases. There's more depth now too. Waring is now a capable backup, so there are signs of improvement at the all-important QB position. I'm not convinced that it has improved as much as it needs to, but it has improved enough to upgrade the prediction to 6-5. Also I would caution against the inward focus where we look at position groups, like the offensive and defensive lines, and smile at the returning experience and depth. The Covid spring season did not count against eligibility so we have 5th and 6th year players we didn't expect. That's nice, but everybody has 5th and 6th year players they didn't expect. Everybody is liking their team with added experience. The schedule, especially the Valley schedule, will be as challenging as ever. 6-5
 

topiarydan

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I'm going to go overly optimistic and go 7-4 with our losses being @Western Michigan, @SIU, vs NDState and @SD
 

TIMMY

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W-L-W-L-W-L-L-W-L-L-W. 5-6. Not a good year but not a disaster. They'll grow from it, turn over at QB and get better. Fun year to watch for weekly improvement. I love football.
 

MadBird

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Hard to see us at even 6-5 w/o at least one "upset" and no slip-ups along the way. Sorry to say I agree 5-6 (or God forbid maybe 4-7) is more likely. 5 wins means we have to beat not only Butler, EIU, WIU and InSU, but also one of MSU, SIU, NDSU, UND, USD or UNI (or WMU of course). 6 means taking out 2 of those. Tall order. We were ranked ahead of USD in the preseason poll. Mo. State just ahead of us and we get them at home. If we get out of the gate in halfway decent shape, good QB play, good RB play, D is in shape, we got a chance.

Despite Timmy's correct observation that it'll be fun to look for weekly improvement, this will be a year to enjoy some seniors getting a chance to grab some spotlight, especially on D. Jake Powell, Simon, Jarrell Jackson, your table is ready. Zeke and Shannnon Reid also (listed as JR's).

Will miss the Butler game, but looking forward to some winning October football.
 

Virginia Redbird

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This year there are so many unknown factors, not just with the Birds but other teams as well. Who really knows what any of the teams will be like. Is Mo State that much improved or was it just a strange spring schedule. ISU-Blue did not play at all so what do we really know about them. For our own Redbirds, were they really as bad as the spring seemed to show? The Redbirds are a young team so I don't expect all that much this year. I will go with 5-6 for the fall 2021. If the ball bounces the right way and it could be 6-5. An unlucky bounce or two and it could be 4-7. I think the interesting thing this year will be watching a developing team throughout the season. I cant recall a roster in recent memory where so many positions didn't have a solid incumbent. I think watching the team develop and the players fight for a starting job will be interesting. Also how the coaching staff handles this team. I am not expecting a playoff berth but I will be watching every week.
 

redbirdfan04

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It is really hard to disagree with anyone here. The spring was not a good look and other Valley teams look really strong. But this is a prediction so what the hell 8-3 and an at large. Our QB play exceeds expectations and our defense wins us the tough top ten matchups. We make a strong run and lose in the semi finals to SIU. We are all allowed to dream at this point!
 

ISUBU

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We are really young overall. If we avoid injuries, we'll contend for a playoff spot. If we have to sit some folks, we will very quickly move into inexperienced players. It is just so hard to know which players developed away from the field and will be able to contribute. So many other MVFC teams are returning many experienced players, that I think we'll have a tough season if we have to play the freshmen.
 

Total Red

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We are really young overall. If we avoid injuries, we'll contend for a playoff spot. If we have to sit some folks, we will very quickly move into inexperienced players. It is just so hard to know which players developed away from the field and will be able to contribute. So many other MVFC teams are returning many experienced players, that I think we'll have a tough season if we have to play the freshmen.
Where are we young? The only place I see that we're really young is the running back position and we return our co-starters from the spring season - Pha'leak Brown and Nigel White. Behind them Kevin Brown is now in his 4th season with the team. White and P. Brown combined for 122 yards on 23 carries at NDSU last spring. I'm feeling good about the RB position - young and old.

If you look at the GoRedbirds roster you do see a lot of freshman and sophomores that are an injury away from playing or starting, but that's deceiving. Since the 2020-2021 spring season didn't count towards eligibility the year in school never got updated. It makes us appear younger than we are. You will hear coaches cite youth as a concern but that's the case for most FCS programs. With the lesser number of scholarships, we have to draw upon freshmen/sophs sooner than the FBS, but we're in the same boat as most of our FCS brethren.
 

Redbird15

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7-4 -- could be a 8-3 . Most forgot the spring season game between ND and NIU special teams killed us. and the SD game the INT. So basically the Spring games instead of 1-3 could have been easily 3-1. Fall Season is going to be dependent on QB play/ OC play calling and O-Line play.
 

ISUBU

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Where are we young? The only place I see that we're really young is the running back position and we return our co-starters from the spring season - Pha'leak Brown and Nigel White. Behind them Kevin Brown is now in his 4th season with the team. White and P. Brown combined for 122 yards on 23 carries at NDSU last spring. I'm feeling good about the RB position - young and old.

If you look at the GoRedbirds roster you do see a lot of freshman and sophomores that are an injury away from playing or starting, but that's deceiving. Since the 2020-2021 spring season didn't count towards eligibility the year in school never got updated. It makes us appear younger than we are. You will hear coaches cite youth as a concern but that's the case for most FCS programs. With the lesser number of scholarships, we have to draw upon freshmen/sophs sooner than the FBS, but we're in the same boat as most of our FCS brethren.
Agreed about the RB situation.

Why do I see us as young? You mentioned the overall roster and year of eligibility. You're right that players got a free year last year. But that is true for all the other teams too. So I grabbed a team that we've tried to emulate (NDSU) and one that has been more similar to us over the past decade (UNI). These were the only two teams I looked at, so feel free to pick another and count. Simplistic yes, but we're all following the same rules. I am grouping R-So with So and so on, so just four groups. I admit that RS Freshman could be in his third year of college. But my focus is on the Juniors and Seniors, and we lag these two teams.

Redbirds: 9 Seniors, 17 Juniors, 26 Sophomores, 63 Freshmen.
NDSU: 26 Seniors, 17 Juniors, 34 Sophomores, 39 Freshmen.
UNI: 15 Seniors, 19 Juniors, 17 Sophomores, 55 Freshmen.

Looking at it a different way using playing experience, I used ISU's prospectus for the two deep as a reasonable starting place. The 5 first team OL have all started at least one game over the past two seasons, and all but Asche have played in more than 10 games. But the second unit has no starts: one has played in three out of 19 games over the past two years, two have played in a single game over the past two years, and the other two have not yet appeared in a game.

The offensive skill players are led by Rutkiewicz, Nagel, Taula, McCloyn, and Jefferson with more than 10 appearances over the past two years. Bryce Jefferson has 7 starts and 12 appearances over the past two seasons (19 games in that time). Excluding these 5 offensive skill players, the other 8 or so have a total of 5 starts and 45 appearances (20 of those appearances go to Lombardi and Pennington).

Our projected starting DL has 6 starts over the past 19 games. Powell of course has played in almost all of those games. I counted Simon with the LBs, and this group of 4 has extensive experience. And the DBs/Safeties have played quite a bit too. But as soon as you go to the second unit all across the defense, you're looking at zero starts and only two players with more than 8 games played out of the last 19, I do recognize that we're going to have transfers playing on the DLine who have played elsewhere.

I think we wlll have a solid season if we keep players healthy. But if we have to elevate backups to the first team, it is likely going to be a player with little experience.
 

redbirdfan04

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That's excellent analysis and fair comparison with those two teams but that's not a representative sample of the entire FCS or even the MVFC. I suspect that NDSU is as experienced as any FCS team in the country and UNI isn't too far behind. You invite selection of other schools but most other schools have not publicly posted a depth chart. That's something you are more likely to get at football crazed schools like NDSU. I think we stack up with most of the FCS in years of experience but we do fall behind in game experience as you pointed out. We only played 4 games in the spring while a lot of other schools played more. That was our choice, we have to live with it. But, if selective analysis is in play then it might be enlightening to look at the most important position on the field - the QB position. I think we can agree that it is not only important to have years of game experience, it is also very important to have played with the same teammates in the same system. You can bring in a talented and experienced QB but if he's learning a new offense and throwing to players he has never thrown to before, then he's newborn young to the program. Let's look at how we stack up to the rest of the FCS teams on our schedule and in the Valley in terms of QB experience with the team they are going to be playing with this fall.

Eastern Illinois -projected QB starter Chris Katrencik, transfer, has never started a college game, new to EIU this month so zero previous experience at EIU.

SIU - projected QB starter Stone Labanowitz. former transfer, 1 year at SIU, started 5 games with the Salukis

Missouri St. - either Jaden Johnson or Jason Shelley QB. Johnson has 1 year at MSU, 6 starts. Shelley new this month so zero experience at MSU.

North Dakota St. - projected starter Quincy Patterson - transfer, 1 start in college, zero playing experience at NDSU.

South Dakota - projected starter Carson Camp - 1 year at USD, 4 starts

Western Illinois - projected starter Connor Sampson - 6th year senior at WIU, 17 QB starts. So ironically, the one team with a decisive edge in years and playing experience at his current school and we've beaten Sampson in both of his starts against us and we will be favored once again this fall.

N. Iowa - projected starter Will McElvain - 4th year at UNI with 20 starts

North Dakota - projected starter Tommy Schuster - 3rd year at ND with 7 starts

Indiana State - projected starter Anthony Thompson - transfer, has never started a college game, zero experience at Indiana St.

Youngstown St. - projected starter Mark Waid - 3rd year at YSU, 4 starts

South Dakota St. - projected starter Chris Oladokun - transfer, new this month so zero experience with SDSU.

Illinois State - projected starter Bryce Jefferson - 4th season at Illinois State, 7 starts.

At the most important position where experience really counts, several other schools are starting over with a QB new to the team.
Great write up on the QBs. I am not sure Stoney starts at SIU. It sounds like they will run with a QB system. The QB situation is always fluid as I like to say at the FCS level. What I think you need to look at is the defense side of the ball. I think all of these teams can find the end zone a time or two no matter who is at QB. The defense is what sets the Valley apart from other conferences. How healthy can each defense stay and can they avoid mental errors....
 

Total Red

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I am not sure Stoney starts at SIU. It sounds like they will run with a QB system.
True, SIU has extensive options at QB and I think they had 4 different starting QB's last season. It's hard to point to one guy. One thing they all have in common is that none of them has a lot of experience at SIU.
 

TIMMY

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Can he play? That's all I care about. Experience??? Sure it helps. Can he play?
So who do you start Andy Dalton or Justin Fields? I've seen what Dalton can do. Give me the kid!!!!! He can play!
So who do you start Redbirds? 😇
And why do I have this sneaking suspicion Patterson and Oladokin can play?
 
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Total Red

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I am grouping R-So with So and so on, so just four groups. I admit that RS Freshman could be in his third year of college. But my focus is on the Juniors and Seniors, and we lag these two teams.

Redbirds: 9 Seniors, 17 Juniors, 26 Sophomores, 63 Freshmen.
NDSU: 26 Seniors, 17 Juniors, 34 Sophomores, 39 Freshmen.
UNI: 15 Seniors, 19 Juniors, 17 Sophomores, 55 Freshmen.
I did a deeper dive into this and it isn't an apples to apples comparison. There isn't any uniformity in how different schools list the year classification so the comparison isn't valid.

Example - Zeke Vandenburgh - Illinois State. Zeke started his Redbird career in 2017 with a redshirt. '17,'18, '19, '20-'21(spring) that's 4 years and now 2021 fall is his 5th year. GoRedbirds lists him as a Junior because he will still have 1 year of eligibility left after this season.


Now look at similar player at North Dakota St. Christian Watson also began his Bison career as a 2017 redshirt but their website lists him as a Senior.


Even more - Jasir Cox of NDSU began his Bison career in 2018. This is his 4th year. They list him as a Senior.


and Dom Williams of Northern Iowa. He started his college career at Kansas in 2017. Like Vandenburgh this is his 5th college season. UNI lists him as a Grad student. You didn't list grad students so I assume he counted as a Senior.


bottom line we both wasted a lot of time on this but for me it's always a labor of love. Hope you enjoyed it too.
 

Virginia Redbird

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Can he play? That's all I care about. Experience??? Sure it helps. Can he play?
So who do you start Andy Dalton or Justin Fields? I've seen what Dalton can do. Give me the kid!!!!! He can play!
So who do you start Redbirds? 😇
And why do I have this sneaking suspicion Patterson and Oladokin can play
I would start whoever gives the team the best chance to win. 5th (6th) year Senior or brand new Freshman. I don't think familiarity with the team is all that important for the QB if he has "IT". "IT" is more than just athletic talent. It is that factor that lifts an entire team by their presence on the field. The Birds had a transfer that did spring training with his former team and declared his intention to transfer to ISU in June. That fall he led the Redbirds to the FCS National Title game. His name was Tre. It did not seem that not having any time with ISU hurt him, or the team. I don't know if Patterson or Oladokin fit the Tre mold but with those two programs, I am betting they will hit the ground running.
BTW, I would start Fields. Trust the Bears to screw up the QB position though!
 

fourthandshort

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regarding experience and year indicators ... you know how some roster sites list 2 columns for experience: one for academic, one for redshirt eligibility. Well, we're going to need a 3rd column or more for various adjusted eligibilities ... greyshirts, medical redshirts, and now pandemic exceptions.

Arrrggghhhhh !!! This is so confusing .. Quinnie, I was told there would be no math on this forum !!!!!!!!!!!!

1629973668471.png
 

fourthandshort

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back to predictions, I see 5-6 as most likely outcome. But IMO, the +/- 1 game is teetering more towards 4-7 than 6-5. Biggest variables are QB and OL play on offense, then DB and DL play on defense .. lot of big shoes to fill. Speaking of big shoes to fill .. the good news is most of us feel good at RB. Spack continues to find good to great RBs.

OOC .. I can see us going 2-1 to start the season. It just seems like there is much more distance between us and EIU the last few years. Even in a rebuild, we should win that road game playing average.

Conf:

- We skip SDSU this year, though we usually seem to play with or up to them .. so not so good, I'd rather skip NDSU.

- So we open conf against 2 most improved programs in MVFC .. SIU on road and MoST at home. Can easily see 1-1, but 0-2 is more likely than 2-0.

This puts us at 3-2 or 2-3 after 5 games. Jumping around schedule now for games 6 to 11

- We also get NDSU (game 6) and UNI (game 9) at home .. somehow this season, I would rather take those 2 as road losses. But theyre at home, so that doesn't help our chances this season. Though UNI in game 9 gives me hope we have put it together by them. So maybe 1-1, but again 0-2 is more likely than 2-0. Let's give us benefit of doubt and say 1-1.

- games we MUST win are USD (game 7, road), WIU (game 8, road) and then last game InSU (game 11, home) ... maybe 3-0, but could just as likely be 2-1. And our 2 easiest games are game 8 and 11. Most seasons, that would help with playoff picture winning late .. except i don't see us in playoffs. Most likely we go 2-1, losing to USD on road.

- then a very tough improving UND team on road in game 10 .. likely loss, so 0-1

Add it all up ... 6-5 is best record .. if we beat MoST and UNI at home. Then do what is most likely in remaining 9 games, going 4-5. This is why 4-7 is more likely than 6-5.

Going with 5-6, and our reload/rebuild pays big dividends in 2022.
 
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StLRedbird

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I sure understand the 5-6 or 6-5 consensus here. But I also think it's at least worth noting that the consensus here has also been that our past few recruiting classes have been successful, with potential standouts dotting all of those classes. There are no reasonably sound class rankings out there at the FCS level, so that's all we have to go on, I think. So, I gotta say it. There is at least a chance that things are gonna click on the field this fall. We sure didn't see it in the spring, though.

I'm gonna go with the we-re-gonna-see-some-pleasant-surprises view and say 7-4. Need to sweep SIU and MOST to do it, and we can.

Also, thanks for the analysis. I read and re-read that stuff, and I'm sure others do too.
 

MadBird

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I sure understand the 5-6 or 6-5 consensus here. But I also think it's at least worth noting that the consensus here has also been that our past few recruiting classes have been successful, with potential standouts dotting all of those classes. There are no reasonably sound class rankings out there at the FCS level, so that's all we have to go on, I think. So, I gotta say it. There is at least a chance that things are gonna click on the field this fall. We sure didn't see it in the spring, though.

I'm gonna go with the we-re-gonna-see-some-pleasant-surprises view and say 7-4. Need to sweep SIU and MOST to do it, and we can.

Also, thanks for the analysis. I read and re-read that stuff, and I'm sure others do too.
I'd love to be wrong. Again! ;)
 
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