Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?! We're talking about PLAYOFFS?!

MadBird

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Similar to the situation I posed last week before the InSU game -- suppose we go 2-2 in our last 4 games, end up 7-4, BUT stumble vs. YSU or WIU but beat either NDSU or SDSU. Does 7-4 with a win in the Dakotas but a loss vs. WIU/YSU get us in?
 

Manchester Matt

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Similar to the situation I posed last week before the InSU game -- suppose we go 2-2 in our last 4 games, end up 7-4, BUT stumble vs. YSU or WIU but beat either NDSU or SDSU. Does 7-4 with a win in the Dakotas but a loss vs. WIU/YSU get us in?
I still say yes. The combined record of ISU’s five wins is 12-23. That’s horrendous. It could get a lot better with a marquee win in the Dakotas.

I think we have a legit chance to win Saturday. They are still great, but they aren’t the dominant force they’ve been.
 

cpacmel

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I still say yes. The combined record of ISU’s five wins is 12-23. That’s horrendous. It could get a lot better with a marquee win in the Dakotas.
Just for reference:

Austin Peay 5 wins: 7-29

Montana 5 wins: 8-28

SIU's 5 wins: 12-23 (includes FBS victory)

North Dakota State's 5 wins: 10-24

Idaho 5 wins: 11-25

Rhode Island 5 wins: 13-22

Richmond 5 wins: 14-21
 

fourthandshort

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Just for reference:

Austin Peay 5 wins: 7-29

Montana 5 wins: 8-28

SIU's 5 wins: 12-23 (includes FBS victory)

North Dakota State's 5 wins: 10-24

Idaho 5 wins: 11-25

Rhode Island 5 wins: 13-22

Richmond 5 wins: 14-21
nice research .!!! .. aka .. everyone on the bubble has warts .. especially if the play in weaker conferences.
 

Manchester Matt

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I just wish we started the season with a little more respect. Montana has a similar resume as ISU (more convincing wins against USD and Indiana State), yet sits just outside the top 10. The only team we’ve beat with a winning record is Valpo. I’m pulling for UNI to get hot.

I really want to win in Fargo on Saturday. I don’t want this put into the hands of the committee in a month.
 

Virginia Redbird

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Speculating and making comparisons is what these types of forums are all about. All of us want the Redbirds to have a successful season and make the playoffs. A great playoff run would be priceless! I have enjoyed reading everyone's perspectives and adding my two cents as well. Passionate fans on this forum are what makes it a fun place to stop especially during the season. But ...

If the Redbirds and the ISU football program want respect and people giving them their due they have to earn it. That means they have to beat good teams, powerful teams, teams people will be impressed by that ISU came away with a win. Beating UNI in what looks to be a down season for them (more to come I know) is not going to do that. If they really want that kind of respect they need to knock off both NDSU and SDSU. It is fairly unlikely but that is what they need to do to have people sit up and take notice. Then win the games they should win. I don't think this year's NDSU team is as good as they have had in the past few years. Looking at the Bisonville Forum quite a few of their fans feel the same way. Don't get me wrong, they are a very good football team, they just don't look as dominant as their past few teams. The Birds have a great opportunity to control their own destiny and stamp their own brand on the MVFC. Win out and they are in, period.

Talor Heinke had a pretty good game for the Commanders (Redkins) on Sunday. I watched him play here at Old Dominion University. He is not the most physically imposing guy in the world and not the greatest talent but a story about last week's game said he plays each game and each play like it is the last one he will ever play. He was out of the league, a starter, a sub, and now due to Wentz's injury back on the field. For him, every play could well be the last play. The Birds would do well to adopt that type of mindset.

I hope they go out Saturday and play like there is no tomorrow, earn the win, and to hell with the selection committee and their politics!

Go Redbirds!
 

Manchester Matt

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Just going to say that the last couple weeks on this side of the board has been filled with passionate, well-thought out banter from all sides of this postseason argument.

We have some great passionate fans. I hope we continue to have these types of discussions the next month.

I’ve enjoyed reading everyone’s thoughts.

Ok, now back to the topic at hand.
 

fourthandshort

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Similar to the situation I posed last week before the InSU game -- suppose we go 2-2 in our last 4 games, end up 7-4, BUT stumble vs. YSU or WIU but beat either NDSU or SDSU. Does 7-4 with a win in the Dakotas but a loss vs. WIU/YSU get us in?
Losing to 0-7 WIU at home will hurt us much more than losing to 4-3 YSU at home.

So beating a Dakota and losing to YSU .. we are 100% in at 7-4 / 5-3 ... no way we're out.

But losing to WIU, even beating a Dakota to finish with same record ... then we're squarely on the bubble.

CPAMEL had nice research/post about current ranked teams opponent-records for their wins. Plus there are 4 more games where those conferences will also experience attrition, eating their own same as we do .. except our playoff history speaks for itself, even excluding NDSU.

Our specific problem was a weak start to season, but especially the Valpo win by 7 .. it really set us back for the season in the eyes of pollsters and computers. As that game gets futher away and less impactful, and we are starting to play much better at time .. we are starting to climb. That first half against ISUb was phenomenal (excl kicking game) ... we thoroughly dominated a team NDSU, YSU, and UNI couldn't shake.

And yes, we also let ISUb back in the game .. but that was because of kicking game (should have been 37-14 early in Q4) and Spack going conservative to start the 2nd half. First drive was 14 plays ... 13 rushes, 1 pass .. ended with another botched FG. That kind of set the tone for rest of 2nf half. But the team came out firing on offense and defense to start this game ... it was fun to watch.
 

fourthandshort

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Speculating and making comparisons is what these types of forums are all about. All of us want the Redbirds to have a successful season and make the playoffs. A great playoff run would be priceless! I have enjoyed reading everyone's perspectives and adding my two cents as well. Passionate fans on this forum are what makes it a fun place to stop especially during the season. But ...

If the Redbirds and the ISU football program want respect and people giving them their due they have to earn it. That means they have to beat good teams, powerful teams, teams people will be impressed by that ISU came away with a win. Beating UNI in what looks to be a down season for them (more to come I know) is not going to do that. If they really want that kind of respect they need to knock off both NDSU and SDSU. It is fairly unlikely but that is what they need to do to have people sit up and take notice. Then win the games they should win. I don't think this year's NDSU team is as good as they have had in the past few years. Looking at the Bisonville Forum quite a few of their fans feel the same way. Don't get me wrong, they are a very good football team, they just don't look as dominant as their past few teams. The Birds have a great opportunity to control their own destiny and stamp their own brand on the MVFC. Win out and they are in, period.

Talor Heinke had a pretty good game for the Commanders (Redkins) on Sunday. I watched him play here at Old Dominion University. He is not the most physically imposing guy in the world and not the greatest talent but a story about last week's game said he plays each game and each play like it is the last one he will ever play. He was out of the league, a starter, a sub, and now due to Wentz's injury back on the field. For him, every play could well be the last play. The Birds would do well to adopt that type of mindset.

I hope they go out Saturday and play like there is no tomorrow, earn the win, and to hell with the selection committee and their politics!

Go Redbirds!
Good post .. but it's funny how high the bar is in Fargo ... for the record SDSU is really good ... #1 in country. And NDSU let the game slip away after dominating them early., up 21-7 and lost by 2. NDSU's ONE weakness is in their run defense. They are literally # 1in MVFC in run offense, passing QBR (not a lot passes though), total scoring, and pass defense .. and they are middle of road in run defense. So they feel very vulnerable when they play teams with good run offenses ... like SDSU. Not to mention, SDSU is very good on defense ... hence, SDSU might be the better overall team this year.

Side related note .. I got my uniform numbers (or maybe announcers did) mixed up on saturday. I thought Wright was out of the game on the last series .. looks like he did finish the game on the field ... I think announcers threw me off .. or I'm just getting too old ???

For me .. this is great news. I was worried he got re-injured heading into NDSU game.

Now let's hope Zeke is close to 100% !!!

Illinois St. at 02:38
1st and 10 at ILS50Illinois St. drive start at 02:38.
2nd and 8 at INS48Timeout Illinois St., clock 02:38.
1st and 10 at ILS50No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Wenkers rush middle for 2 yards gain to the INS48 (Cole,Rylan; Hunter,Lucas).
2nd and 8 at INS48Timeout Indiana St., clock 02:32.
2nd and 8 at INS48No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Wenkers rush right for 3 yards gain to the INS45 (Hunter,Lucas; Ollendieck,Garret).
3rd and 5 at INS45Timeout Indiana St., clock 02:27.
3rd and 5 at INS45No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Wenkers rush right for 0 yards to the INS45 (Ollendieck,Garret; Miller,Casey).
4th and 5 at INS45Timeout Indiana St., clock 02:22.
4th and 5 at INS45Takerian,Jack punt 38 yards to the INS07 fair catch by Caton,Dakota at INS07.
 

Bird Friend

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... I think announcers threw me off .. or I'm just getting too old ???

For me .. this is great news. I was worried he got re-injured heading into NDSU game.

Now let's hope Zeke is close to 100% !!!

Illinois St. at 02:38
Those need not be mutually exclusive. ;)
 

Manchester Matt

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Back on thread topic .. please bare with my post here about our current rankings vs where we will be come regular season end and FCS playoff selection committee time.

AGS has a panel of Top 25 voters that I believe generally does the best job of ranking FCS teams - I'll explain shortly. The Coaches and STATS polls tend to be the most followed. But are also well known to be very regionalized with conference favoritism happening a lot. Plus noone is ever held accountable for conference homerism on the Coaches and STATS polls; plus they are generally lazy and don't do much research, nor are their votes scrutinized ever.

But with AGS's Top 25 FCS panel, they are held accountable explicitly by the moderators, and then thru total forum transparency. The voters picks each week are posted on the weekly Top 25 thread after each set of weekend games. So these votes are subjected to live immediate scrutiny. They will light up voters up for dumb picks and homer picks. Regular homers eventually get kicked off the panel. New panel members are made very aware of expectations and the scrutiny. By end of regular season, AGS is always the closest to getting it right based on playoff performance.

That said, right now, AGS Top Panel currently has us ranked t-31st. if we go 3-2 the rest of way and play NDSU or SDSU respectably, we will continue to climb. Why ? because AGS voters know what it means to finish 7-4 / 5-3 in the MVFC or Big Sky, versus all other conferences. And the playoff results fully support this thinking.

As for ISU not being ranked higher by Coaches or STATS polls ... do you think a national Coaches Poll with more than half the schools being out east, are paying attention to our season ? Or anything outside their schedule or conference for that matter ? No, and many vote based on their biased belief their conference is better than what anyone else thinks, plus it helps them look better if their conference teams are ranked higher. Then add in zero transparency/scrutiny over their votes ... well, you get what you paid for with Coaches and STATS Polls.

As for computerized rankings, studies show the database of game W-L outcomes, scores, home/away, SOS, etc doesn't become "statistically well connected" until about week 6 or 7 (bye weeks for some). Computers of course must also weigh in prior season early on, until current season has sufficient credibility to lean much less on prior season as we get to weeks 6-7 & beyond. Its also when most teams have played at least 3 OOC and 3 conf games .. so a pretty good representative sampling. Right now Massey has us 24th, Sagarin has us 25th.

But the one I like the most is the Massey Composite of 33 polls/ranking sites .. a combination of a bunch of computer rankings, plus subjective rankings like AGS, Coaches, STATS, etc, Right now, Massey Composite has us 30th. It too will continue to climb our ranking if we go just 3-2, especially if we are competitive in a game against NDSU or SDSU. Coaches Poll has us 37th, STATS Poll has us 34th.

So right now, the best indicator of where we are at today, suggests about #30. And we will rightly climb into Top 20 if we go just 3-2 .. the quality and scores of those games will determine how high and fast we climb. IMO, in the end, AGS is most likely to get it closest and most objectively right.

Now let's beat ISUb decisively, and start our climb to a playoff bid. If we beat them on road by more than the last 3 teams, all the computers will know this instantly. So will the AGS Top 25 panel. Most of the Coaches and STATS poll members will only see we beat some 1-5 team, if even that.

Massey Composite of 33 rankings: College Football Ranking Composite


10/17/2022 AGS Poll Results


Rank​
Team:​
Total Points​
First Place Votes​
1​
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1264​
42​
2​
Sac State Hornets
1213​
9​
3​
Weber State Wildcats
1133​
4​
Montana State Bobcats
1125​
5​
North Dakota State Bison
1087​
6​
Holy Cross Crusaders
964​
7​
Incarnate Word Cardinals
921​
8​
Montana Grizzlies
854​
9​
Mercer Bears
833​
10​
Chattanooga Mocs
795​
11​
William & Mary Tribe
759​
12​
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
712​
13​
Samford Bulldogs
639​
14​
Southern Illinois Salukis
544​
15​
Jackson State Tigers
464​
16​
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
460​
17​
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
458​
18​
Idaho Vandals
442​
19​
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
372​
20​
Richmond Spiders
355​
21​
Elon Phoenix
300​
22​
Rhode Island Rams
254​
23​
Fordham Rams
157​
24​
Furman Paladins
149​
25​
Southeastern Louisiana Lions
92​
ORV:
26​
Princeton Tigers
60​
27​
Austin Peay Governors
51​
28​
New Hampshire Wildcats
45​
29T​
Campbell Fighting Camels
16​
29T​
Missouri State Bears
16​
31T​
Illinois State Redbirds
14​
31T​
Villanova Wildcats
14​
33​
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
8​
34​
North Carolina Central Eagles
3​
35T​
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
1​
35T​
Pennsylvania Quakers
1​
AGS has ISU at 36th with a whopping one vote. UNI with a 5-4 record and loss to ISU at home? 27th with 37 votes.

Maybe pull back the reins on praising the fans on that site.
 

fourthandshort

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AGS has ISU at 36th with a whopping one vote. UNI with a 5-4 record and loss to ISU at home? 27th with 37 votes.

Maybe pull back the reins on praising the fans on that site.
I'll have a talk with them !!!'

But AGS still does better than STATS or Coach's Poll .. don't know of any other that is remotely familiar with and vested in the FCS enough to be credible .. that is until the FCS selection committee makes their decisions.
 

fourthandshort

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So does anyone know if Wenkers Wright was doubtful going into NDSU game ... 1 carry for -4 yards. Or did he re-aggravate one of this injuries on that play ?
 

Redbird15

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So does anyone know if Wenkers Wright was doubtful going into NDSU game ... 1 carry for -4 yards. Or did he re-aggravate one of this injuries on that play ?
Pantagraph news said he had a ankle injury going into NDSU game. He aggravate it on 1st play. Looking back at his only run he was gimpy on that play. Guess they are saying he is alot better at todays practice than last week prior to NDSU game. AHH now looks like another lineman is out Bussone for possible two weeks knee injury.
 

fourthandshort

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Pantagraph news said he had a ankle injury going into NDSU game. He aggravate it on 1st play. Looking back at his only run he was gimpy on that play. Guess they are saying he is alot better at todays practice than last week prior to NDSU game. AHH now looks like another lineman is out Bussone for possible two weeks knee injury.
thanks .. got to get this guy healthy for YSU and WIU. Not feeling great about SDSU game, but being competitive at SDSU would sure help our playoff chances, assuming we beat YSU and WIU.
 

MadBird

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Versus SDSU might not be the best place, but time to take the wraps off Rashad Lampkin, give him a shot. Pha'Leak has just been so-so, Nigel's had some moments. Let Lampkin have 12-15 carries to see what he can do as the change-up from Nigel.

Gotta have a stout D for YSU, hold their RB down some.
 
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