Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?! We're talking about PLAYOFFS?!

Redbird

Member
Joined
Aug 1, 2017
Messages
85
Since the loss in the 2014 Championship game Spack is 3-3 in playoff games.
Finished above .500 in MVFC games once in the last six seasons (19-25) A loss Saturday at Indiana State would likely make it one finish above .500 in the last seven seasons.
2015 MVFC 7-1 Playoffs 1-1
2016 MVFC 4-4 Playoffs 0-1
2017 MVFC 4-4 No Playoffs
2018 MVFC 3-5 No Playoffs
2019 MVFC 5-3 Playoffs 2-1
2020 MVFC 1-3 No Playoffs
2021 MVFC 2-6 No Playoffs
2022 MVFC 2-1 (currently)

Is this a resume closer to:
A field named after you?
Being fired?
Not getting a contract renewal in 2025?
This guy gets it. I have been beating the Fire Spack drum for a few seasons now. First, as all of you have told me 7-4 in the MVFC is really good because our conference is so good. I believe that if we go 7-4 we make the playoffs. I will be surprised if we go 7-4 considering how I felt at the beginning of the season. I do believe we should have beat SIU. Spack's conservative nature keeps us from winning those games but by the same token I was very surprised we pulled out UNI and USD. Given the "success" this year so far I wouldn't fire him this season if we finish 7-4. If we finish less than that, buyouts withstanding, this guy needs to be gone. We are stagnant and have been so since the beginning of the 2016 season with 1 lone bright spot. Earlier in this thread Fourth noted our inability to develop QB's. This will not change with Spack continuing to be here.
 

fourthandshort

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
8,873
This guy gets it. I have been beating the Fire Spack drum for a few seasons now. First, as all of you have told me 7-4 in the MVFC is really good because our conference is so good. I believe that if we go 7-4 we make the playoffs. I will be surprised if we go 7-4 considering how I felt at the beginning of the season. I do believe we should have beat SIU. Spack's conservative nature keeps us from winning those games but by the same token I was very surprised we pulled out UNI and USD. Given the "success" this year so far I wouldn't fire him this season if we finish 7-4. If we finish less than that, buyouts withstanding, this guy needs to be gone. We are stagnant and have been so since the beginning of the 2016 season with 1 lone bright spot. Earlier in this thread Fourth noted our inability to develop QB's. This will not change with Spack continuing to be here.
True ... except I don't want him fired. I think we're lucky to have him. But agree, he needs to win more his remaining contract years. Of not, we should look elsewhere once his contract expires.

Note, if we ever get healthy and settle down on OL and RB positions, I think we will see this offense put up some points. It seems like we have the right OC, and our best QB since 2016 Kolbe. Thing is, Kolbe had 3 good WRs, and a good RB by committee foursome. Annexstad doesn't have either, nor any stability on OL as yet .. he just needs a little more help from OL and RBs.

Grass aint always greener when it comes to coaches. 64k question is .. can you find one who will win more than Spack. One who can consistently build top level defenses like Spack ? And high level run games ? Maybe the latter, but probably not the former. if Spack's fate is to always rely on transfer QBs, it's not ideal, but I'm ok with that. But then make sure we have a capable OC who you will let run the offense and develop the QBs .. and one who will help woo transfer QBs. The notion that Spack can groom young OCs is unrealistic ... all he's grooming is yes men, IMO. DC .. yes. OC .. no.

Let's see some progress against the Sycamores, then go from there.
 

Dmills

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 6, 2020
Messages
668
This was a great week for our playoff aspirations. The two teams we don't play lost in Missouri State and North Dakota to Northern Iowa and SDSU. South Dakota also beat a previously 4-0 (MVFC) SIU.
 

fourthandshort

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
8,873
The SIU loss to USD really hurt the MVFC stock for playoff bids. War of attrition in MVFC is really taking a toll more than usual. Issue is we have a lot of pretty good teams good teams knocking each other off, and just 2 really good teams. SIU, UND, UNI, YSU are all pretty good teams.

MoST was beating Arkansas last in Q3 before losing .. and now theyre 0-4 in MVFC play - no sure what happened to them. USD and ISUb are not bad teams like their records would suggest. BUt I didn't see SIU losing to USD .. that one hurts the conference, since they were the 3d best team.

Going to be tougher than usual sledding come playoff bid time. I may have to eat some crow on our conference's bid potential this year .. unfortunately more attrition to follow. 4 teams may be the max possible this year.

But given how strong we played in first half, I'm liking our chances to finish out with wins over YSU and WIU, both at home. Then we just need to be competitive against NDSU or SDSU, both on road ... Bison getting bye week to watch our game against ISUb and rest up, certainly doesn't help our chances of stealing one in Fargo. They know we dominated that first half on both sides of the ball, so they will come prepared for a fight.


1666624057447.png
 

Dmills

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 6, 2020
Messages
668
AFCA slow to get on board with ISU. ISU ranked 35th, just ahead of North Dakota.
 

Manchester Matt

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 16, 2017
Messages
1,672
updated
I agree with him that the league is down, but NDSU isn't going to be the 8 seed if they win out, like he suggests, with a loss to Number 1 and a loss at Arizona. That's just flat out silly.

Outside of winning one of the Dakota games, our path to the playoffs might be SIU and UND finishing 6-5. I doubt ISU gets left out at 7-4 in that case.
 

fourthandshort

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
8,873
This guy has issues with MVFC if he thinks three MVFC teams could finish 7-4 and should not make playoff, leaving us with just 2 bids. It's been many years since we had a single 7-4 team not make playoff .. but 3 in same year ? And it's been since 2013 that we had just 2 bids.

Most curiously, he's got Florida A&M in at a projected 9-2, except one of the wins is NOT even D-I .. they currently have zero quality wins and have 2 bad losses. Look at their win margins against bad treams. This pick alone discredits this guy's objectivity completely.

What about below resume even hints at a top 24 at large bid, even if they win out at 9-2, which is really just 8-2 against the 113th ranked SOS in FCS.

1666636585623.png
 
Last edited:

Virginia Redbird

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2017
Messages
2,372
Location
Chesapeake, Virginia
At this point in the season, I think the only surefire way the Birds make the playoffs is if they can pull out a win over either NDSU or SDSU and then win against YSU and WIU. That would guarantee a playoff spot I think. Two losses and two wins may or may not make it but from the posts above it is looking more dismal for that road to the playoffs.
NDSU saw ISU pay a strong half against the Sycamores. They also saw ISU go into a shell way early in that game. What I don't like about the way the last game went is the Birds showcased to everyone they are never out of the game with ISU. If we get off to a big lead we will in fact take the foot off the gas, play conservatively, and rely on defense to win the game. That to me, as I watched on Saturday, was the problem with how they played. I am a firm believer that when you have a team on the ground you put your foot on their throat and crush the life out of them (metaphorically speaking of course). If the Bison should not play well and get behind they would probably expect the Birds to go into their let's not lose mode and that opens the door to take the game back over.
NDSU is a good team yes, but not as good as past teams. At least they have not played as well or dominated so far this season as they have in the past. Indiana State played them tough. I think we can beat them but not if we don't play to win for all four quarters up in Fargo and never let up on both side of the ball. If the Birds have two turnovers next week they lose I think. They were lucky to get away with those against ISUBlue. On to Fargo!
 

DaveBird10

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
1,156
At this point in the season, I think the only surefire way the Birds make the playoffs is if they can pull out a win over either NDSU or SDSU and then win against YSU and WIU. That would guarantee a playoff spot I think. Two losses and two wins may or may not make it but from the posts above it is looking more dismal for that road to the playoffs.
NDSU saw ISU pay a strong half against the Sycamores. They also saw ISU go into a shell way early in that game. What I don't like about the way the last game went is the Birds showcased to everyone they are never out of the game with ISU. If we get off to a big lead we will in fact take the foot off the gas, play conservatively, and rely on defense to win the game. That to me, as I watched on Saturday, was the problem with how they played. I am a firm believer that when you have a team on the ground you put your foot on their throat and crush the life out of them (metaphorically speaking of course). If the Bison should not play well and get behind they would probably expect the Birds to go into their let's not lose mode and that opens the door to take the game back over.
NDSU is a good team yes, but not as good as past teams. At least they have not played as well or dominated so far this season as they have in the past. Indiana State played them tough. I think we can beat them but not if we don't play to win for all four quarters up in Fargo and never let up on both side of the ball. If the Birds have two turnovers next week they lose I think. They were lucky to get away with those against ISUBlue. On to Fargo!

I agree the Birds played conservatively and not to lose but I think that was a product of the game last week more then going conservative we had 473 yards of offense and punted 1 time thru 3 quarters, next time we punted was 10:32 left in the game. If we take care of the ball, don't give up 14 points off turnovers and don't give away 10 points because of misfiring on field goals and PAT then conservative is something we aren't talking about. Most teams don't win a game giving away that many points. The players made it closer then it should have been from all the above, if you add the 10 points and take off the 14 points the game could've easily been 37-7 or worse. I think as we kept making mistakes the coaches had every right to go conservative because after Wenkers fumbled Indy State was punching at the football and stacking the box. Spack leans of the defense because he's a defensive coach and trusts them. Defense has done for 3 straight weeks.
Any game is winnable if the offense, defense and special teams comes together for 4 quarters and Saturday in Fargo is the time to start that. Win 3 out 4 and Birds make the playoffs, split and go 2-4 its a 50/50 shot depending on how the committee views the MVFC.
 

MadBird

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 16, 2017
Messages
3,936
Location
Madison, Wisconsin
At this point in the season, I think the only surefire way the Birds make the playoffs is if they can pull out a win over either NDSU or SDSU and then win against YSU and WIU. That would guarantee a playoff spot I think. Two losses and two wins may or may not make it but from the posts above it is looking more dismal for that road to the playoffs.
NDSU saw ISU pay a strong half against the Sycamores. They also saw ISU go into a shell way early in that game. What I don't like about the way the last game went is the Birds showcased to everyone they are never out of the game with ISU. If we get off to a big lead we will in fact take the foot off the gas, play conservatively, and rely on defense to win the game. That to me, as I watched on Saturday, was the problem with how they played. I am a firm believer that when you have a team on the ground you put your foot on their throat and crush the life out of them (metaphorically speaking of course). If the Bison should not play well and get behind they would probably expect the Birds to go into their let's not lose mode and that opens the door to take the game back over.
NDSU is a good team yes, but not as good as past teams. At least they have not played as well or dominated so far this season as they have in the past. Indiana State played them tough. I think we can beat them but not if we don't play to win for all four quarters up in Fargo and never let up on both side of the ball. If the Birds have two turnovers next week they lose I think. They were lucky to get away with those against ISUBlue. On to Fargo!
Well, I want to agree with you. I guess I do agree with you, sort of. But I just looked at the box score from the 2019 playoff game vs. the Bisons. You know, the game we held them w/o a TD? And lost 9-3? And our QB passed just 8 times and completed only 3? So, were we playing to win that game? I know Spack was playing to his strength, one James Robinson had 24 carries. And he won't be suiting up this weekend. So, I don't know.
 

Virginia Redbird

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2017
Messages
2,372
Location
Chesapeake, Virginia
Well, I want to agree with you. I guess I do agree with you, sort of. But I just looked at the box score from the 2019 playoff game vs. the Bisons. You know, the game we held them w/o a TD? And lost 9-3? And our QB passed just 8 times and completed only 3? So, were we playing to win that game? I know Spack was playing to his strength, one James Robinson had 24 carries. And he won't be suiting up this weekend. So, I don't know.
Yep MadBird, the big difference I think is that Mr. Robinson will not be in the neighborhood!
 

DaveBird10

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
1,156
A couple big games in terms of playoff possibilities this weekend

UNI @ SIU

Abilene Christian @ UND

-if UNI can pull a win out on the road and give SIU a 4th loss with NDSU still on the schedule that would be huge.
- Abilene Christin leads the WAC currently and sits at 5-2 not sure if we would want an UND win to boost conference or Abilene Christian and give UND a 4th loss with NDSU still on schedule. I
 

RedbirdSoxFan

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 19, 2017
Messages
3,261
A couple big games in terms of playoff possibilities this weekend

UNI @ SIU

Abilene Christian @ UND

-if UNI can pull a win out on the road and give SIU a 4th loss with NDSU still on the schedule that would be huge.
- Abilene Christin leads the WAC currently and sits at 5-2 not sure if we would want an UND win to boost conference or Abilene Christian and give UND a 4th loss with NDSU still on schedule. I
If SIU & UND both lose, this will show how bad the MVFC is from third place and below. Regardless of what happens in any remaining MVFC games, Illinois State will need to win their games with YSU & WIU, and win at least one of the two games @ the Dakota State’s.
Illinois State’s record isn’t some much about how good they are, it’s more about how mediocre the conference is.
 

Virginia Redbird

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2017
Messages
2,372
Location
Chesapeake, Virginia
Expert insights via Dan Verdun at Prairie State Pigskin. Looks like an uphill climb with 2-2 down the stretch. 3-1 may work.

National FCS analysts weigh in on ISU Redbirds’ playoff chances
Yeah, I think the Birds will need to beat both YSU and WIU and also knock off either NDSU or SDSU to get a playoff bid. That of course depends on what the other teams do down the stretch. If they can pull off an upset from one of those two they will deserver the playoff spot. It is going to be an interesting four weeks coming up!
 

ISUBU

Active member
Joined
Jul 16, 2017
Messages
997
8-3 and we're in. 7-4 is doubtful but possible.

Based upon 2021's losing season, we started far outside of consideration. We haven't had any "take notice" moment, so our progression has been fairly slow.

From watching the playoffs for years, the power leagues (MVFC, Big Sky, CAA) generally get all of their 8-3 or better teams into the playoffs. Once in a while someone is bumped, but not usually. There are just too many of those teams that are going to finish with 8 wins this year, and that'll be the biggest reason we're out if we are 7-4.

Why the respect for those leagues? In the last 20 seasons, only Sam Houston, App State, Jacksonville State, Colgate and McNeese are teams NOT from those three conferences that have appeared in the championship game.
 
Top Bottom