Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?! We're talking about PLAYOFFS?!

Redbirdwarrior

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Okay, hear me out.

Even though the team is still in kind of this strange rebuilding mode, ISU has put itself in a spot to potentially go into the Fargo Dome at 5-2 with one of those losses being at Wisconsin.

It is logical to think ISU will get mashed by both SD State and ND State later this year, but also is logical to think they could win every other game on the schedule.

South Dakota
Indiana State
Youngstown St
Western

The Birds would go into the end of the year, possibly at 7-4 with losses being:

at Big 10 WIsconsin
at #1 ND State
at #2 SD State
vs #16 SIU

Do we have a chance or did the loss to SIU likely torpedo those chances?
 
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Phantom

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We definitely have a shot, just need to take care of business. It would have REALLY been nice to beat SIU though. But what's done is done. Start with winning tomorrow.
 

fourthandshort

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Four more wins (South Dakota, Indiana St., Youngstown St., Western) put us at 7-4 and in the playoffs.
for sure .. no way we don't get a bid with those 4 losses, assuming we don't get obliterated. And the SIU loss is looking better as they are starting to climb after slow start.
 

Virginia Redbird

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The Birds are not out of the playoff hunt yet but they do not have much wiggle room either. I think they can do it with losses to both NDSU and SDSU as long as they win the rest of the games. They have to win all the other games though.
 

Chi-bird

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A 6-5 season is expected in my book….and playoffs would would be a great accomplishment. I expected the big jump to be 2 years from now before we win our back-to-back national titles in 2025 and 2026.
 

fourthandshort

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Playoffs will depend on healthy Wenkers Wright, since we're already down Mueller ... anyone hear if he is expected to go full tilt or not today ??
 

redbirds2000

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A 6-5 season is expected in my book….and playoffs would would be a great accomplishment. I expected the big jump to be 2 years from now before we win our back-to-back national titles in 2025 and 2026.
Who do you expect to lose to?
South Dakota (1-4) @ Home
Indy State (1-4) @ Indy State
YSU (2-3) @ Home
WIU (0-5) @ Home
 

Manchester Matt

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Assuming we beat South Dakota, indiana State, YSU and Western, I’m not sure 7-4 does it with this resume. There wouldn’t much quality in the seven wins. What win will the committee look at and be overly impressed? UNI could finish 5-6 with what they have left. Needed that SIU game.

I’m sure I’ll get 7-4 in the MVFC is automatic, but I don’t see it this year. I hope I’m wrong. Or we can just go win one of those games in the Dakotas to make it easier.
 

fourthandshort

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Assuming we beat South Dakota, indiana State, YSU and Western, I’m not sure 7-4 does it with this resume. There wouldn’t much quality in the seven wins. What win will the committee look at and be overly impressed? UNI could finish 5-6 with what they have left. Needed that SIU game.

I’m sure I’ll get 7-4 in the MVFC is automatic, but I don’t see it this year. I hope I’m wrong. Or we can just go win one of those games in the Dakotas to make it easier.

I think the selection committee has finally come to the blatantly obvious realization that the MVFC is a cut above everyone, except Big Sky the last 4 years - theyve really stepped it up, at least the upper half has. But the selection committee knows we do very well in playoffs no matter how many bids we get. So we tend to get benefit of doubt, which we should, when it comes to being on the bubble.

The only problem with a redbird7-4 record in the eyes of the selection committee would be this:

  • Wisconsin 38-0 loss - that game did not play like a 38-0 loss at all. But this will look like a blowout on paper.
  • Valpo 28-21 win - this will be the tipping point for us not getting a bubble bid. Just looks deservingly bad - zero excuses
  • NDSU and SDSU blowouts - lose both by a lot, say 24+ points - that may rightly tip us the wrong way.
But even still .. it will depend on 2 things:

  • how we rank within the MVFC - meaning, if were arguably the 4th or even 5th best team, then very strong chance were in.
  • who else is on the bubble with their quality wins/losses vs bad wins/losses .. everyone lays eggs if they are on the bubble
This is where being 7-4 in the MVFC is and should be the deciding factor.
 

ISUBU

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Playoffs will depend on healthy Wenkers Wright, since we're already down Mueller ... anyone hear if he is expected to go full tilt or not today ??
Reportedly a tweaked hamstring. Tough to fully heal from those quickly. So able to play, but I expect him to be limited.
 

redbirds2000

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Assuming we beat South Dakota, indiana State, YSU and Western, I’m not sure 7-4 does it with this resume. There wouldn’t much quality in the seven wins. What win will the committee look at and be overly impressed? UNI could finish 5-6 with what they have left. Needed that SIU game.

I’m sure I’ll get 7-4 in the MVFC is automatic, but I don’t see it this year. I hope I’m wrong. Or we can just go win one of those games in the Dakotas to make it easier.
So the MVFC would only get 3 bids?? NDSU, SDSU, and SIU.
 

redbirds2000

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North Dakota.

It seems the argument is solely what conference we play in. I’m saying that our resume won’t have a quality win on it.

Again, I hope I’m wrong.
UND is more than likely going 7-4. 6-5 if ACU is legit. If UND gets in at 7-4 and ISU doesn't, it's time to change the non conference scheduling strategy. Playing Valpo would prove to do nothing for getting into the playoffs. EIU too.
 

Manchester Matt

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UND is more than likely going 7-4. 6-5 if ACU is legit. If UND gets in at 7-4 and ISU doesn't, it's time to change the non conference scheduling strategy. Playing Valpo would prove to do nothing for getting into the playoffs. EIU too.
It would be interesting. I’d have to look closer at the rest of the teams. We aren’t all that close to being in the top 25 because the noncon wins are garbage.
 

Chi-bird

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Who do you expect to lose to?
South Dakota (1-4) @ Home
Indy State (1-4) @ Indy State
YSU (2-3) @ Home
WIU (0-5) @ Home
Coming into the season I was thinking 6-5, Going 4-2 in the valley (outside of SDSU and NDSU).

Will we be favored in each of tthe 3 games vs InSU, WIU, and YSU? Probably. That said it’s likely going to be 3 close games. InSU concerns me the most
 

fourthandshort

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It would be interesting. I’d have to look closer at the rest of the teams. We aren’t all that close to being in the top 25 because the noncon wins are garbage.
The EIU win and margin is a positive .. we beat them 35-7, worse than #9 Tenn Chat beat them by at 38-20. But agree the Valp win ias bad.

I just think youre overlooking all the pros and cons of every teams record and schedule. Most teams we would be on the bubble with will have warts and unless they're in the Big Sky, we will get the nod. If theyre in the Big Sky, they look closer to see who is more deserving. In the end, 5-3 in the MVFC, and we played the top 3 teams, and beat every team below us ia a positive .. it makes us the 4th or 5th best team in the best conference. And they will remember 2019 when everyone thought the MVFC was having a down year.
 

Manchester Matt

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i will feel pretty good if we get to 5-3. I just don’t think the overall depth of the Valley is what it has been.

Very little margin for error. It’s not like we are dominating teams. Outside of Western, I wouldn’t say we are a huge favorite in any of the remaining games. Someone else mentioned Indiana State. That one scares me. Let’s beat the Trees and then I’ll feels lot better.

It is damn good be having a conversation about getting back to the playoffs. I love it.
 

Bird Friend

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The EIU win and margin is a positive .. we beat them 35-7, worse than #9 Tenn Chat beat them by at 38-20. But agree the Valp win ias bad.

I just think youre overlooking all the pros and cons of every teams record and schedule. Most teams we would be on the bubble with will have warts and unless they're in the Big Sky, we will get the nod. If theyre in the Big Sky, they look closer to see who is more deserving. In the end, 5-3 in the MVFC, and we played the top 3 teams, and beat every team below us ia a positive .. it makes us the 4th or 5th best team in the best conference. And they will remember 2019 when everyone thought the MVFC was having a down year.
The Valpo win may be bad . . . but not as bad as if it had been an L.
 
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