MVC Week 8: 1/31/23 - 2/5/23

[isuquinndog]

Standings:

Southern Illinois	9-3
Belmont	9-3
Drake	8-4
Bradley	8-4
UNI	8-4
Indiana State	7-5
Murray State	7-5
Missouri State	7-5
Valparaiso	4-8
Illinois State	4-8
UIC	1-11
Evansville	0-12

Games:

2/1/23:

UIC (1-11) 62 @ Illinois State (4-8) 68 (OT)- 7 pm, Marquee Network
Indiana State (7-5) 83 @ Evansville (0-12) 65 - 7 pm, ESPN+
Valparaiso (4-8) 67 @ Missouri State (7-5) 76 (OT) - 7 pm, ESPN+
Belmont (9-3) 82 @ Murray State (7-5) 83 - 7 pm, ESPN+
Southern Illinois (9-3) 52 @ Bradley (8-4) 62 - 7 pm, ESPN+
UNI (8-4) 81 @ Drake (8-4) 88 (OT) - 8 pm, MVC TV

2/4/23:

Evansville 61 @ UIC 70 - 1 pm, ESPN+
Murray State 56 @ Indiana State 99 - 3 pm, CBS Sports Network
Illinois State 75 @ Belmont 90 - 4 pm, ESPN3
Bradley 77 @ UNI 69 - 5 pm, ESPN2
Drake 85 @ Valparaiso 82 (OT) - 6 pm, ESPN+

2/5/23:

Missouri State 53 @ Southern Illinois 73 - 2 pm, MVC TV/ESPN+

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

Four teams @ 9-4 if Bradley and Murray State win @ home tomorrow.

 

[SgtHulka]

I'm fine with local fans enduring barking dogs on the way out of the civic center.

 

[isuquinndog]

Lines for 2/1 games:
Murray State -1
Indy State -13.5
Missouri State -9.5
Bradley -6.5
ISU -6
Dake -7.5

 

[Redbird222]

Lines for 2/1 games:
Murray State -1
Indy State -13.5
Missouri State -9.5
Bradley -6.5
ISU -6
Dake -7.5

I am kind of surprised on the Bradley line. I think SIU keeps it closer and can win. Now that I have voiced this, the line will be spot on

 

[isuquinndog]

Games updated.

Standings halfway through this week:

Drake	9-4
Southern Illinois	9-4
Belmont	9-4
Bradley	9-4
Indiana State	8-5
Murray State	8-5
Missouri State	8-5
UNI	8-5
Illinois State	5-8
Valparaiso	4-9
UIC	1-12
Evansville	0-13

 

[Hrtnfldhse]

8 teams within one game of each other for the #1 seed. Arch Madness is going to be nuts. Just wish our Birds were involved in those 8

 

[Adunk33]

This league is absolute chaos and I love it. I haven't looked at any schedules or anything but I hope there is a possibility for a 5-way tie somewhere in there, so that a team or two with the same record ends up on Thursday as a team or two that gets the bye. STL is going to be a lot of fun. I see up to two of whichever teams get byes, losing on Friday. Three reasons- first the Thursday team will have had more rest versus Thursday teams of years past. Second, they have the advantage of playing a game in the building- shooting lines and whatnot. Third- there isn't much separation between 1-9. Controversially throwing in the Birds as they have beaten two of the "top" teams in Belmont and SIU and took Bradley to OT.

When I got home from the Birds game last night, I turned on UNI-Drake. Boy O' Boy did Devries (the coach) nearly cost his guys the game...TWICE. It's talked about all the time whether you foul or not, up 3 with X amount of seconds left. Up 3, UNI inbounds with 3.5 to go in the second half, Born hits a game tying shot at the buzzer. Then in OT, similar situation, Born hits another one at the buzzer to send them to their second overtime. I guess I get not fouling the first time, but man...the gonads on DeVries to let him get another shot off. Ultimately, its moot since Drake won anyway, but the result could've been very different based on that decision.

 

[Redbird60451]

This is crazy. As of today, I guess we'd be the 9 seed playing UNI? Then the winner meets the 1 seed (some list as SIU, some list as Drake, don't know who owns the tie breaker or how they'd even solve a 4 team tie breaker).

I think UNI might be the team to avoid, of those teams in that 1 game behind scenario. I'd want to draw the Bears or Trees really. I know we've been relatively close both games. But that Born kid hitting clutch shots, and we can barely inbound the ball. It sucks we didn't beat Valpo at home, because we know we can't win IN Valpo, not sure why playing in that High School gym gives us trouble. Maybe it's the fact there's only 1 snack stand.

 

[Popsto4]

This is crazy. As of today, I guess we'd be the 9 seed playing UNI? Then the winner meets the 1 seed (some list as SIU, some list as Drake, don't know who owns the tie breaker or how they'd even solve a 4 team tie breaker).

I think UNI might be the team to avoid, of those teams in that 1 game behind scenario. I'd want to draw the Bears or Trees really. I know we've been relatively close both games. But that Born kid hitting clutch shots, and we can barely inbound the ball. It sucks we didn't beat Valpo at home, because we know we can't win IN Valpo, not sure why playing in that High School gym gives us trouble. Maybe it's the fact there's only 1 snack stand.

I like the post but I’d rather see the Birds take a chance at UNI again. They’re a good team. We should’ve at least split with them. I’d like our chances with them again.

 

[Adunk33]

I like the post but I’d rather see the Birds take a chance at UNI again. They’re a good team. We should’ve at least split with them. I’d like our chances with them again.

Pops, you're new to league so I'll give you a pass...Birds vs UNI in STL rarely goes the good guys' way, epitomized by two games.

March 8th, 2009. Championship Sunday. The Redbirds lost to UNI in OT after we got an offensive rebound late, and instead of putting up the wide open lay up, we kicked it out and restarted the offense. It all unraveled from there.

March 8th, 2015. Championship Sunday. The Redbirds were the 4 seed and their were two giants atop the conference. The 1 seed was No. 8 Wichita State who the Birds beat by 3 on semifinal Saturday. Massive win and one of the best games I've seen live. They would advance to play the 2 seed and the No.11 team in the country, the UNI Panthers. Everything, and I do mean everything was going the Redbirds way, being up 36-22 at half. Redbird fans knew it was far from over...it was...Birds lost 69-60 and another shot to go to the dance.

While we're reminiscing, might as well catch you up to speed, since you may not know, why some fans a little jaded toward the program.
07-08: Lost to Drake in MVC Title, lost to Dayton in second round of NIT.
08-09: Lost to UNI in MVC Title, lost in OT to Kstate in first round of NIT.
09-10: Lost to Wichita State in semi-finals, Lost to Dayton first round NIT.
11-12: Beat No. 15 Wichita in semi-finals, Lost to No. 25 Creighton in OT in the Championship. Lost to Stanford in OT, second round of NIT
14-15: See above.
16-17: Went 17-1 in conference play, share of regular season title, lost to Wichita in the Championship. Lost to UCF in the second round of NIT. Had they won that game, they would've hosted Illannoy for the first and only time-ever. Guess what? Big halftime lead for that one too.
17-18: Lost to Loyola on Championship Sunday. Loyola went on to go to the Final 4.
18-19: Tied Breakers put us to Thursday night after losing one two buzzer beaters during conference play
19-20: Thursday
20-21: Thursday
21-22: Thursday.

If you're keeping tabs at home that is 6 Arch Madness Championship losses in 10 years. 6 times, they were one game away from the dance and couldn't get it down. Wow...Sorry everyone...that's a bummer.

I hope this helps provide a little context to where the team has been the last 15 years and that fans don't forget. LOL. Definitely excited about where things are headed but also, the sentiment that if you don't learn from history it's going to repeat itself is at play. I know Pedon will get us over the hump.

 

[DoubleDeuce]

Just hope Pedon does not get us close and bail like Jank.

 

[Popsto4]

Pops, you're new to league so I'll give you a pass...Birds vs UNI in STL rarely goes the good guys' way, epitomized by two games.

March 8th, 2009. Championship Sunday. The Redbirds lost to UNI in OT after we got an offensive rebound late, and instead of putting up the wide open lay up, we kicked it out and restarted the offense. It all unraveled from there.

March 8th, 2015. Championship Sunday. The Redbirds were the 4 seed and their were two giants atop the conference. The 1 seed was No. 8 Wichita State who the Birds beat by 3 on semifinal Saturday. Massive win and one of the best games I've seen live. They would advance to play the 2 seed and the No.11 team in the country, the UNI Panthers. Everything, and I do mean everything was going the Redbirds way, being up 36-22 at half. Redbird fans knew it was far from over...it was...Birds lost 69-60 and another shot to go to the dance.

While we're reminiscing, might as well catch you up to speed, since you may not know, why some fans a little jaded toward the program.
07-08: Lost to Drake in MVC Title, lost to Dayton in second round of NIT.
08-09: Lost to UNI in MVC Title, lost in OT to Kstate in first round of NIT.
09-10: Lost to Wichita State in semi-finals, Lost to Dayton first round NIT.
11-12: Beat No. 15 Wichita in semi-finals, Lost to No. 25 Creighton in OT in the Championship. Lost to Stanford in OT, second round of NIT
14-15: See above.
16-17: Went 17-1 in conference play, share of regular season title, lost to Wichita in the Championship. Lost to UCF in the second round of NIT. Had they won that game, they would've hosted Illannoy for the first and only time-ever. Guess what? Big halftime lead for that one too.
17-18: Lost to Loyola on Championship Sunday. Loyola went on to go to the Final 4.
18-19: Tied Breakers put us to Thursday night after losing one two buzzer beaters during conference play
19-20: Thursday
20-21: Thursday
21-22: Thursday.

If you're keeping tabs at home that is 6 Arch Madness Championship losses in 10 years. 6 times, they were one game away from the dance and couldn't get it down. Wow...Sorry everyone...that's a bummer.

I hope this helps provide a little context to where the team has been the last 15 years and that fans don't forget. LOL. Definitely excited about where things are headed but also, the sentiment that if you don't learn from history it's going to repeat itself is at play. I know Pedon will get us over the hump.

I do like all that and yes I’m brand new. Thanks for the history too btw. You’ve seen it for 15 years, I’ve seen it for about 2/3 of this season. I still say I like the Birds chances in a game 3 vs. UNI to get a win in Arch Madness. Of course I’m going by the two losses but am putting more sick into the second loss a game in which the Birds should’ve won. To take down a team 3x is more difficult than not. I love this board.

 

[Redbird222]

It's such a crap shoot with the top eight teams. They all have stretches where they have played well but they also ALL have been shown to be vulnerable too.

I am not sure how I feel playing the Trees. We didn't have an answer for Larry (PG) and they have lots of guards that can hurt you in different ways. We are thin right now with Sandage hurt again. I dont know what the LT prognosis is after hearing Pedon at the press conference. He didn't come off very convincing that Colton would be back when asked about him. Things seem to be very much up in the air.

 

[Adunk33]

I do like all that and yes I’m brand new. Thanks for the history too btw. You’ve seen it for 15 years, I’ve seen it for about 2/3 of this season. I still say I like the Birds chances in a game 3 vs. UNI to get a win in Arch Madness. Of course I’m going by the two losses but am putting more sick into the second loss a game in which the Birds should’ve won. To take down a team 3x is more difficult than not. I love this board.

I kind of lost my point as I was going through the historical pain of the last decade+. Jacobsen was then, and remains the top coach in this league. He's doing what he has this season having lost two of what were expected to be his top 3 early in the season. And he's doing it with freshmen. He's a guy I never like to see in STL because he is an excellent coach.

 

[Buffett1]

taken from a quote


So over a 10-year period up to 2018, in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72.4% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy.

 

[Redbird222]

taken from a quote


So over a 10-year period up to 2018, in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72.4% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy.

Exactly

What people often factor incorrectly into the equation are if the results of the first games ave not been determined. If you have three games still to play then then yes it is statistically harder to win three games. However, as you pointed out, when the results are already 2 wins ... bet on the team that won the 2 previous meetings.

 

[SgtHulka]

taken from a quote


So over a 10-year period up to 2018, in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72.4% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy.

Hard to beat a Good team 3 times. Bad teams are much easier and more available to beat

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

Drake with second straight double-overtime win.

 

[isuquinndog]

Updated with the weekend scores.