MVC: school "strength" of OOC schedule [2022-2023], based on 2021-2022 NET ranking

[ISU86]

I went through each school's non-conference schedule and calculated an overall average rating (based on the opponent's NCAA Men's Basketball NET ranking at the end of the season). If a school is in a tournament, the opponents were weighted based on the round in which as school would play the opposition. For example, the Redbirds have a 100% chance to play the Tigers, a 50% chance to play either the Hilltoppers or Zips (equals 100) and a 25% chance to play one of the Green Wave, Rams, Wildcats or Wolf Pack (equals 100); ISU could end up with a better rating if they play Western Kentucky and Kansas State or a worse rating if they play Akron and Rhode Island. Finally, as with the NET, non-Division I opponents are excluded.

NOTE: this could be better if there was any sort consensus as to which "preview" was considered most accurate for the coming season.


Here is each MVC school's NET ranking for last season.

1.) Murray State: 29
2.) Missouri State: 72
3.) Belmont: 79
4.) Drake: 85
5.) Northern Iowa: 98
6.) Bradley: 102
7.) Southern Illinois: 137
8.) Illinois State: 200
9.) Valparaiso: 207
10.) Indiana State: 238
11.) Illinois-Chicago: 283
12.) Evansville: 327


The overall average opposition rating per school this season (a median Division I rating would be 182) based on NET last season.

1.) Northern Iowa: 135
2.) Belmont: 143
3.) Murray State: 147
4.) Missouri State: 152
5.) Evansville: 172
6.) Drake: 182
7.) Bradley: 183
8.) Southern Illinois: 218
9.) Valparaiso: 228
10.) Illinois-Chicago: 237
11.) Illinois State: 246
12.) Indiana State: 249


Quick glimpse for each school (best and worse (with last's season NET rating) and any non-DI opposition).

Belmont
best: at Tennessee-Chattanooga [63] {could face vs Wyoming [58]}
worst: at Lipscomb [268]
non-DI: Trevecca Nazarene

Bradley
best: vs Auburn [13]
worst: Stonehill [361]
non-DI: Wisconsin-Parkside

Drake
best: vs Mississippi State [60] {could face vs Wyoming [58]}
worst: Indiana/Purdue-Indianapolis [358]
non-DI: St. Ambrose

Evansville
best: at Southern Methodist [53]
worst: vs Robert Morris [328]
non-DI: n/a

Illinois State
best: vs Louisiana State [20]
worst: at Eastern Illinois [356]
non-DI: n/a

Illinois-Chicago
best: Loyola-Chicago [28]
worst: vs Stonehill [361]
non-DI: Trinity Christian

Indiana State
best: North Dakota State [162] {could face vs Toledo [86], vs Drexel [154]}
worst: at Southern Indiana [361]
non-DI: Trinity Christian

Missouri State
best: at Saint Mary's [19]
worst: Central Michigan [318]
non-DI: Missouri Science & Technology

Murray State
best: vs Texas A&M [36] {could face vs Loyola-Chicago [28], vs Boise State [34]}
worst: Chicago State [340]
non-DI: Lindsey Wilson

Northern Iowa
best: vs San Francisco [26]
worst: McNeese State [313]
non-DI: Wartburg

Southern Illinois
best: at Oklahoma State [45]
worst: at Southern Indiana [361]
non-DI: Lincoln (Missouri)

Valparaiso
best: vs South Dakota State [67]
worst: Stonehill [361]
non-DI: Trinity Christian


Finally, list of all opponents in NET rating order (undetermined tournament opposition listed at bottom for each school):

Northern Iowa [135]
vs San Francisco [26]
at Virginia [68]
vs Towson [71]
St. Bonaventure [75]
at Richmond [84]
Toledo [86]
South Florida [245]
Northern Illinois [297]
McNeese State [313]
Wartburg [n/a]
vs Wichita State [87]/Grand Canyon [92]

Belmont [143]
at Tennessee-Chattanooga [63]
at Furman [82]
Middle Tennessee State [95]
Ohio [119]
at Georgia State [158]
Samford [176]
vs Tarleton State [214]
at Lipscomb [268]
Trevecca Nazarene [n/a]
vs George Mason [114]/Boston College [141]
vs Wyoming [58]/Drake [85]/Buffalo [120]/Howard [241]

Murray State [147]
vs Texas A&M [36]
at Tennessee-Chattanooga [63]
at Saint Louis [66]
at Middle Tennessee State [95]
at Bellarmine [197]
Austin Peay State [289]
Chicago State [340]
Lindsey Wilson [n/a]
vs Colorado [74]/Massachusetts [178]
vs Loyola-Chicago [28]/Boise State [34]/Tulsa [180]/North Carolina-Charlotte [188]

Missouri State [152]
at Saint Mary's [19]
at Brigham Young [59]
Middle Tennessee State [95]
vs North Carolina-Wilmington [146]
Sam Houston State [153]
at Oral Roberts [160]
Purdue-Fort Wayne [235]
Central Michigan [318]
Missouri Science & Technology [n/a]
vs Vermont [56]/Ball State [265]
vs North Texas [55]/Long Beach State [159]/Oakland [173]/San Jose State [293]

Evansville [172]
at Southern Methodist [53]
at Saint Louis [66]
at Central Florida [99]
vs South Alabama [156]
Bellarmine [197]
vs Fairfield [202]
Campbell [218]
Southeast Missouri State [250]
at Miami, Ohio [256]
at Ball State [265]
vs Robert Morris [328]

Drake [182]
vs Mississippi State [60]
at Saint Louis [66]
Wofford [108]
vs Buffalo [120]
Louisiana-Lafayette [187]
at Radford [288]
Nebraska-Omaha [346]
Indiana/Purdue-Indianapolis [358]
St. Ambrose [n/a]
vs Wyoming [58]/Howard [241]
vs Belmont [79]/George Mason [114]/Boston College [141]/Tarleton State [214]

Bradley [183]
vs Auburn [13]
vs Arkansas [21]
at Utah State [65]
Akron [126]
Southeast Missouri State [250]
Merrimack [291]
at Southern Illinois-Edwardsville [292]
Eastern Michigan [306]
Stonehill [361]
Wisconsin-Parkside [n/a]
vs Northwestern [91]/Liberty [118]

Southern Illinois [218]
at Oklahoma State [45]
Saint Louis [66]
vs Nevada-Las Vegas [97]
at Southeast Missouri State [250]
Alcorn State [262]
Tennessee State [274]
Arkansas-Little Rock [315]
Chicago State [340]
at Southern Indiana [361]
Lincoln (Missouri) [n/a]
vs Minnesota [109]/California Baptist [222]

Valparaiso [228]
vs South Dakota State [67]
at Toledo [86]
at Mississippi [110]
at Samford [176]
vs James Madison [211]
Elon [253]
Western Michigan [329]
at Chicago State [340]
Incarnate Word [350]
Stonehill [361]
Trinity Christian [n/a]

Illinois-Chicago [237]
Loyola-Chicago [28]
at Northwestern [91]
Jacksonville State [148]
at Fordham [177]
Northeastern [251]
Prairie View A&M [295]
at Western Michigan [329]
vs Holy Cross [343]
at Wisconsin-Green Bay [344]
vs Stonehill [361]
Trinity Christian [n/a]

Illinois State [246]
vs Louisiana State [20]
Western Illinois [239]
vs Ball State [265]
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville [292]
Eastern Michigan [306]
at Northwestern State [330]
Northwestern State [330]
Chicago State [340]
at Eastern Illinois [356]
vs Western Kentucky [122]/Akron [126]
vs Kansas State [69]/Tulane [94]/Nevada [125]/Rhode Island [142]

Indiana State [249]
North Dakota State [162]
vs East Carolina [183]
at Miami, Ohio [256]
Ball State [265]
at Duquesne [278]
Northern Illinois [297]
Wisconsin-Green Bay [344]
at Southern Indiana [361]
Trinity Christian [n/a]
vs Toledo [86]/Missouri-Kansas City [208]
vs Drexel [154]/Northern Kentucky [198]/Florida Gulf Coast [199]/Texas-Arlington [236]

 

[Bird Friend]

Thanks for the info! Were you bored?

 

[TBS_20]

Adhd

 

[crazzymark]

They need to rename the MVC to the MVPIC Missouri Valley Play in Conference.

 

[stats]

Love this stuff. Thanks for doing this!

 

[ISU86]

Thanks for the info! Were you bored?

Adhd

Bored? Maybe, a bit.
ADHD? Doubtful to gather and tabulate all of this data.

HCTJ caught flak for gawdy records versus non-existent competition; HCDM for poor records against (for a mid-major) a representative (most seasons) slate of games.

There have been comments about being very little meat on this year's non-conference bone; other folks giving HCRP a pass year one for the non-competitive schedule because he had higher priority items to focus on year one (personally, in this day and age with a staff of six, there appears to be enough available bandwidth to handle it as well).

I wanted to see where our schedule ranked within the conference (11th out of 12, lower than even our predicted finish) and also get a general feel overall for the total conference "strength of schedule" (as a whole, it looks average). Outside of the MTE (NOT chosen by HCRP), the strongest opponent scheduled is Western Illinois ... who was rated worse than us last season.

Quite honestly, this team should go 8-3 based on their opposition. Schedule harkens back to the Basketball Travelers/Global Sports/World Vision Classic days (although those schedules may have even been a bit beefier).

One thing I do like is, outside of Northern Illinois, the schedule contains every in-state school we can realistically schedule relatively easily. If quality is not a concern, might as well stay cheap and local.

 

[TBS_20]

Bored? Maybe, a bit.
ADHD? Doubtful to gather and tabulate all of this data.

HCTJ caught flak for gawdy records versus non-existent competition; HCDM for poor records against (for a mid-major) a representative (most seasons) slate of games.

There have been comments about being very little meat on this year's non-conference bone; other folks giving HCRP a pass year one for the non-competitive schedule because he had higher priority items to focus on year one (personally, in this day and age with a staff of six, there appears to be enough available bandwidth to handle it as well).

I wanted to see where our schedule ranked within the conference (11th out of 12, lower than even our predicted finish) and also get a general feel overall for the total conference "strength of schedule" (as a whole, it looks average). Outside of the MTE (NOT chosen by HCRP), the strongest opponent scheduled is Western Illinois ... who was rated worse than us last season.

Quite honestly, this team should go 8-3 based on their opposition. Schedule harkens back to the Basketball Travelers/Global Sports/World Vision Classic days (although those schedules may have even been a bit beefier).

One thing I do like is, outside of Northern Illinois, the schedule contains every in-state school we can realistically schedule relatively easily. If quality is not a concern, might as well stay cheap and local.

Actually people with adhd are known to make very detailed lists that's why I said...but it was more sarcasm than anything

 

[DWRedbird]

Actually people with adhd are known to make very detailed lists that's why I said...but it was more sarcasm than anything

I have ADHD and have done similar things when I hyper focus on minor league baseball player stats for my dynasty fantasy baseball league. I actually bought the ADHD thing.

 

[Bird Friend]

I have ADHD and have done similar things when I hyper focus on minor league baseball player stats for my dynasty fantasy baseball league. I actually bought the ADHD thing.

Wait . . . there's an ADHD thing you can buy?

 

[DWRedbird]

Wait . . . there's an ADHD thing you can buy?

There is, but you can only find it if you follow the dopamine.