MVC: school "strength" of OOC schedule [2019-2020], based on 2018-2019 NET ranking

[ISU86]

I went through each school's non-conference schedule and calculated an overall average rating (based on the opponent's NCAA Men's Basketball NET ranking at the end of the season). If a school is in a tournament, the opponents were weighted based on the round in which as school would play the opposition. For example, the Redbirds have a 100% chance to play the Bearcats, a 50% chance to play either the Hilltoppers or Falcons (equals 100), and a 25% chance to play one of the Wolfpack, Antelopes, Crusaders or Rams (equals 100); ISU could end up with a better rating if they play Western Kentucky and Nevada or a worse rating if they play Bowling Green State and Fordham). Finally, as with the NET, non-Division I opponents are excluded.

NOTE: this could be better if there was any sort consensus as to which "preview" was considered most accurate for the coming season (I will reproduce leveraging 2019-2020 predictions once they are released (closer to the start of the season)).


First, the overall rating per school (a median Division I rating would be 177).

1.) Illinois State: 124
2.) Northern Iowa: 148
3.) Bradley: 151
4.) Loyola-Chicago: 164
5.) Evansville: 165
6.) Valparaiso: 166
7.) Southern Illinois: 169
8.) Missouri State: 170
9.) Indiana State: 181
10.) Drake: 195


Quick glimpse for each school (best and worse (with last's season NET rating) and any non-DI opposition).

Bradley
best: at Memphis [48] {could face vs Kansas State [23]}
worst: North Carolina A&T [293]
non-DI: Maryville

Drake
best: at Cincinnati [24]
worst: Kennesaw State [343]
non-DI: Mount Mary, Simpson

Evansville
best: at Kentucky [4]
worst: Western Illinois [305] {could face vs Morgan State [332]}
non-DI: Indiana-Kokomo

Illinois State
best: vs Cincinnati [24]
worst: Morehead State [260]
non-DI: Purdue Northwest

Indiana State
best: at Louisville [22]
worst: Chicago State [353]
non-DI: Missouri-St. Louis

Loyola-Chicago
best: Furman [58] {could face vs New Mexico State [46], vs Nebraska [51]}
worst: Coppin State [342]
non-DI: Quincy

Missouri State
best: at Louisiana State [16]
worst: Mississippi Valley State [349]
non-DI: none

Northern Iowa
best: at Colorado [65] {could face vs Wichita State [63]}
worst: Tennessee-Martin [312]
non-DI: Luther

Southern Illinois
best: at Murray State [43]
worst: Southeast Missouri State [317]
non-DI: Illinois Wesleyan

Valparaiso
best: vs Arkansas [60] {could face vs Cincinnati [24], vs Nevada [27]}
worst: at Southern Illinois-Edwardsville [329]
non-DI: Trinity Christian


Finally, list of all opponents in NET rating order (undetermined tournament opposition listed at bottom for each school):

Loyola-Chicago [131]
at Furman [58]
Davidson [81]
vs South Florida [83]
at Ball State [133]
vs Vanderbilt [155]
Saint Joseph's [171]
Indiana/Purdue-Indianapolis [197]
Norfolk State [247]
California-Davis [251]
Coppin State [342]
Quincy [n/a]
vs New Mexico State [46]/Colorado State [193]
vs Nebraska [51]/Old Dominion [101]/George Mason [154]/Washington State [202]

Drake [132]
at Cincinnati [24]
at Dayton [70]
vs Miami (Ohio) [148]
Lehigh [158]
Missouri-Kansas City [232]
at Air Force [244]
Wisconsin-Milwaukee [299]
Southeast Missouri State [317]
Kennesaw State [343]
Mount Mary [n/a]
Simpson [n/a]
vs Northeastern [86]/South Alabama [236]
vs Murray State [43]/Wright State [136]/Weber State [182]/La Salle [218]

Southern Illinois [142]
at Murray State [43]
San Francisco [73]
at Missouri [74]
at Southern Mississippi [102]
at Saint Louis [107]
vs Texas-San Antonio [143]
Hampton [173]
vs Oakland [209]
vs Delaware [240]
Norfolk State [247]
North Carolina-Central [302]
Southeast Missouri State [317]
Illinois Wesleyan [n/a]

Missouri State [163]
at Louisiana State [16]
at Virginia Commonwealth [38]
Murray State [43]
at Xavier [64]
vs Rutgers [96]
Arkansas-Little Rock [237]
Arkansas State [252]
Cleveland State [283]
at Oral Roberts [297]
Alabama State [330]
Mississippi Valley State [349]
vs Florida [30]/Saint Joseph's [171]
vs Buffalo [18]/Xavier [64]/Connecticut [91]/Towson [261]

Northern Iowa [170]
at Colorado [65]
vs West Virginia [106]
Old Dominion [101]
at Grand Canyon [104]
at Northern Illinois [140]
Marshall [146]
Northern Colorado [167]
Cornell [200]
California State-Bakersfield [219]
Tennessee-Martin [310]
Luther [n/a]
vs Wichita State [63]/South Carolina [79]

Bradley [176]
at Memphis [48]
Toledo [67]
vs Northwestern [88]
Georgia Southern [128]
Radford [137]
at Miami (Ohio) [148]
at Saint Joseph's [171]
Indiana/Purdue-Indianapolis [197]
Illinois-Chicago [211]
Norfolk State [247]
North Carolina A&T [293]
Maryville [n/a]
vs Kansas State [23]/Pittsburgh [120]

Valparaiso [198]
vs Arkansas [60]
Toledo [67]
vs Grand Canyon [104]
at Saint Louis [107]
Central Michigan [122]
at Eastern Michigan [162]
at High Point [231]
at North Carolina-Charlotte [266]
North Dakota [288]
at Southern Illinois-Edwardsville [329]
Trinity Christian [n/a]
vs Nevada [27]/Fordham [245]
vs Cincinnati [24]/Western Kentucky [113]/Bowling Green State [121]/Illinois State [208]

Indiana State [204]
at Louisville [22]
at Dayton [70]
vs Ball State [133]
at Wright State [136]
vs Loyola Marymount [141]
vs Duquesne [169]
North Dakota State [224]
vs Air Force [244]
Tennessee State [315]
Chicago State [353]
Missouri-St. Louis [n/a]

Illinois State [208]
vs Cincinnati [24]
Central Florida [26]
Belmont [39]
at Texas Christian [47]
at Northern Kentucky [112]
at Texas-San Antonio [143]
Illinois-Chicago [211]
Arkansas-Little Rock [237]
Morehead State [260]
Purdue Northwest [n/a]
vs Western Kentucky [113]/Bowling Green State [121]
vs Nevada [27]/Grand Canyon [104]/Valparaiso [198]/Fordham [245]

Evansville [210]
at Kentucky [4]
Murray State [43]
Southern Methodist [94]
at Jacksonville State [125]
Ball State [133]
at Miami (Ohio) [148]
at Wisconsin-Green Bay [190]
at Indiana/Purdue-Indianapolis [197]
vs East Carolina [253]
Western Illinois [305]
Indiana-Kokomo [n/a]
vs Missouri-Kansas City [232]/George Washington [285]
vs Liberty [53]/Rice [217]/Wisconsin-Milwaukee [299]/Morgan State [332]

 

[redbirdron1]

86 - this is really good stuff. Could you run some kind of an algorithm telling me
when my White Sox will actually be competitive or .........if not, my formula just always tells
me they Suck.

U put a lot of work into this - interesting. Just so long as you've got us being competitive and
not being a Thursday night team.

 

[DoubleDeuce]

86 - this is really good stuff. Could you run some kind of an algorithm telling me
when my White Sox will actually be competitive or .........if not, my formula just always tells
me they Suck.

U put a lot of work into this - interesting. Just so long as you've got us being competitive and
not being a Thursday night team.

Sox trending up....Cubs trending down. That's all you need to know.

 

[Phantom]

Great work, 86. Nicely done

Interesting to see that MSU is the only Valley team who didn't schedule a non-DI team in the regular season. Props to them. I wish I could say it's better knowing almost everyone else has a non-DI on their schedule, but it's not. It still sucks. Otherwise, by the data here, our schedule rounds out pretty solid.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

86 - this is really good stuff. Could you run some kind of an algorithm telling me
when my White Sox will actually be competitive or .........if not, my formula just always tells
me they Suck.

U put a lot of work into this - interesting. Just so long as you've got us being competitive and
not being a Thursday night team.

Tim Anderson (Leading MLB with .336 BA)
Jose Abreu (Tied for MLB lead in RBI’s)
Yoan Moncada (5th in AL with .312 BA)
Eloy Jimenez (Thank You Theo)
Luis Robert (Can’t wait to see this guy in a White Sox uniform next spring)
Lucas Giolito
Dylan Cease
Renaldo Lopez
Michael Kopech
Gerrit Cole (Hey, I can dream)
Evan Marshall
Aaron Bummer
Alex Colome’

2020 and beyond looking bright for us White Sox fans.

 

[Metamoron]

Great work, 86. Nicely done

Interesting to see that MSU is the only Valley team who didn't schedule a non-DI team in the regular season. Props to them. I wish I could say it's better knowing almost everyone else has a non-DI on their schedule, but it's not. It still sucks. Otherwise, by the data here, our schedule rounds out pretty solid.

I look at it differently. MSU has 4 teams with a rating below our worst rated team Which would you rather have, 1 non D1 team or 4 more really bad D1 teams?

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Great work, 86. Nicely done

Interesting to see that MSU is the only Valley team who didn't schedule a non-DI team in the regular season. Props to them. I wish I could say it's better knowing almost everyone else has a non-DI on their schedule, but it's not. It still sucks. Otherwise, by the data here, our schedule rounds out pretty solid.

I look at it differently. MSU has 4 teams with a rating below our worst rated team Which would you rather have, 1 non D1 team or 4 more really bad D1 teams?

Why any program that is in need of quality wins, and esp mid
majors who may be on the bubble for an ncaa/nit bid, would schedule a non d1 team is confusing as the program only gets so many bites at the apple to prove their worthy of a bid yet the program throws one away. The MVC almost certainly will be a one bid league again as they seem poorly positioned heading into the upcoming season.

 

[Phantom]

Great work, 86. Nicely done

Interesting to see that MSU is the only Valley team who didn't schedule a non-DI team in the regular season. Props to them. I wish I could say it's better knowing almost everyone else has a non-DI on their schedule, but it's not. It still sucks. Otherwise, by the data here, our schedule rounds out pretty solid.

I look at it differently. MSU has 4 teams with a rating below our worst rated team Which would you rather have, 1 non D1 team or 4 more really bad D1 teams?

I've just always despised scheduling non-DI teams that aren't exhibitions. It does absolutely nothing for you except give you (hopefully) a win that doesn't even really count. I'd rather beat a 300-level cupcake than a non-DI any day of the week. Scheduling no longer really matters anyway, since the only way to Dance is through the Loo, so the negative impact of a high-level DI team on the numbers is basically moot unless we find ourselves at 28-2, which aint happening.