Make or Break time

[redbirdfan04]

Here is the question I look at. I am not sure if the selection committee will but I would hope they do.

If we are 7-4 (6-4) and another team is 8-3 from another conference what is more important the overall record or the metrics? As a fan of course I always lean toward the Redbirds but if you do a blind test it can become very interesting. Does an Eastern Tennessee State team or SE Missouri State team deserve a chance over an Illinois State or Western Illinois team? I think you can find reasons for both.

 

[Phantom]

Here is the question I look at. I am not sure if the selection committee will but I would hope they do.

If we are 7-4 (6-4) and another team is 8-3 from another conference what is more important the overall record or the metrics? As a fan of course I always lean toward the Redbirds but if you do a blind test it can become very interesting. Does an Eastern Tennessee State team or SE Missouri State team deserve a chance over an Illinois State or Western Illinois team? I think you can find reasons for both.

It becomes kind of like hoops at that point. They look at conference affiliation (which ours is obviously excellent), but then also who you played in non-con and who your losses were to. And at this point, we have a bad mark in each of those.

 

[fourthandshort]

Here is the question I look at. I am not sure if the selection committee will but I would hope they do.

If we are 7-4 (6-4) and another team is 8-3 from another conference what is more important the overall record or the metrics? As a fan of course I always lean toward the Redbirds but if you do a blind test it can become very interesting. Does an Eastern Tennessee State team or SE Missouri State team deserve a chance over an Illinois State or Western Illinois team? I think you can find reasons for both.

Not really. Hopefully, the committee is able to discern based on relative strenght of schedule overall. but particularly in the 8 conference games. Both teams you cited (ETSU and SEMO) play in very weak conferences. There is no way a sane person would say that playing in MVFC is only worth 1 win over course of entire season, compared to Southern and especially OVC. Every year, the MVFC has all 10 teams somewhere in top 15 or 20 in Massey SOS, plus most of us play an FBS if we can get one. Teams from OVC (SEMO) and Southern (ETSU) play SOS's that rank from 50 to 100. I think our SOS is worth nearly 2 wins in Southern and 3 wins in OVC.

For example .. SEMO beat SIU by 4. We beat SIU by 40+. We beat EIU by 38 .. in OVC play, EIU is 2-4 and losing by avg of 4 points per game.

Our only competition on bubble for teams with records around 7-4 or 6-4 or 8-3 .. is in Colonial and Big Sky. Big drop off after that ... though Southland and Southern would be closest. OVC is much further down.

 

[CaliRdBrd]

6(7)-4 for this team would be a big disappointment, IMO.
Just like with basketball, you should be at least over .500 in conference to get post season consideration. I could care less what conference you're in...if you're .500 or less, get your golf clubs out.

 

[redbirdfan04]

Here is the question I look at. I am not sure if the selection committee will but I would hope they do.

If we are 7-4 (6-4) and another team is 8-3 from another conference what is more important the overall record or the metrics? As a fan of course I always lean toward the Redbirds but if you do a blind test it can become very interesting. Does an Eastern Tennessee State team or SE Missouri State team deserve a chance over an Illinois State or Western Illinois team? I think you can find reasons for both.

Not really. Hopefully, the committee is able to discern based on relative strenght of schedule overall. but particularly in the 8 conference games. Both teams you cited (ETSU and SEMO) play in very weak conferences. There is no way a sane person would say that playing in MVFC is only worth 1 win over course of entire season, compared to Southern and especially OVC. Every year, the MVFC has all 10 teams somewhere in top 15 or 20 in Massey SOS, plus most of us play an FBS if we can get one. Teams from OVC (SEMO) and Southern (ETSU) play SOS's that rank from 50 to 100. I think our SOS is worth nearly 2 wins in Southern and 3 wins in OVC.

For example .. SEMO beat SIU by 4. We beat SIU by 40+. We beat EIU by 38 .. in OVC play, EIU is 2-4 and losing by avg of 4 points per game.

Our only competition on bubble for teams with records around 7-4 or 6-4 or 8-3 .. is in Colonial and Big Sky. Big drop off after that ... though Southland and Southern would be closest. OVC is much further down.

Great points. I purposely mentioned those two teams knowing they were from weaker conferences with worse metrics in every way to ISU. So you think the committee looks at margin of victory and margin of loss? Spack mentioned that is why they scored the extra TD at the end of the Western game. I agree a 40 point victory is better than a 4 point win against a common opponent just not sure how the committee sees it. I also believe the committee looks highly on FBS wins. If we get to seven with a FBS victory I think we are in for certain.

 

[fourthandshort]

who knows what all they look at ... but they do "try" to consider SOS, and then "strong" wins and losses versus "weak" wins and losses. Unlike a year ago, our weakest lost is 3 point game on road. Last year, we had 2 blowouts on road .. NAU (7-4) and SIU (4-7). So 6-5 could have been a bubble team .. except we had 2 weak losses and no FBS game. In 2016, we got in with 6-5, because we had an FBS win and 3 of our weaker losses were to ok teams by 3, plus 2 losses to YSU (by 14) and NDSU (by 21) ... both of whom finished in top 4 that year.

So losing to SDSU by 10 and NDSU by 14, and then MoST by 3, with a convincing FBS win ... is better so far than 2016. So a close loss at UNI and 2 more wins ... we "should" be a very strong bubble team and get in at 7-4 = 6-4. But we've seen stranger bad decisions happen.

 

[Manchester Matt]

I get the strength of the conference stuff to a degree.

However, ISU hasn’t beat anyone worthwhile in the league as of now. If we are hanging our hopes on losing handily to quality teams, we need a reality check.

Missouri State will be a bad loss. Hell, it already is. They are going to finish 4-7. Western is decent. SIU stinks. Eastern is hot garbage. Colorado State will finish 3-9.

We haven’t beat anyone worth a damn, IMO.

 

[CaliRdBrd]

I get the strength of the conference stuff to a degree.

However, ISU hasn’t beat anyone worthwhile in the league as of now. If we are hanging our hopes on losing handily to quality teams, we need a reality check.

Missouri State will be a bad loss. Hell, it already is. They are going to finish 4-7. Western is decent. SIU stinks. Eastern is hot garbage. Colorado State will finish 3-9.

We haven’t beat anyone worth a damn, IMO.

Agreed!
In regard to hoops, we bag on the Power 5 when it comes to their claim of deserving to be in postseason play simply based upon how difficult their conference is, regardless of their own very mediocre accomplishments. And now we’re making a similar claim in regard to Redbird football?!
I don’t care that we’re in the top conference until we start beating some of the decent teams. Now go beat someone!
That, and Go Glenbard East!!!