22-23 Schedule

Hamdonger

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Lowest Kenpom ranking (2021-22 season) of a current Valley team? 321 (Evansville). Second lowest? 287 (UIC). Third lowest? 230 (Indiana State).

Lowest Kenpom ranking (2021-22 season) of non-conference schedule? 357 (Eastern Illinois). Second lowest? 340 (Chicago State). Third and Fourth lowest? 330 (Northwestern State [x2]). Fifth lowest? 316 (Eastern Michigan). Sixth lowest? 298 (SIUE). Seventh lowest? 267 (Ball St.). Eighth lowest? 250 (Western Illinois).

That is the entirety of non-conference except for Cayman Islands. The third worst Kenpom ranking in the Valley from last year is higher than the best of our non-conference excluding Cayman. That means 73% of our non conference would have been outside the top 10 in the Valley in Kenpom.

Also, during the time when we had our saviors in Loyola (quite recently, in fact), we had a 15 seed in Bradley as our only team in 2019. We would have had another ~15 seed Bradley in 2020 had the tournament been played. This entire narrative is just false.
Two thoughts.
1. For the love of Pete we should have a GOOD non-conf record and I'll be quite disappointed if we don't.
2. This is a brand new team getting put together in a short amount of time. Chemistry may not allow a good record to happen.
 

RedbirdSoxFan

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Illinois State will have six new players on their roster this season. None will be Freshman, None will be JUCO transfer’s. How many teams in the MVC will have fewer than six new players on their roster with none being Freshman or JUCO? Most teams aside from Drake will be dealing with chemistry issues. If we can’t win with this schedule it will be due to lack of talent not chemistry issues. Check out how many new players Missouri State have, Murray State, and other Valley teams. How many new players will the schools on our non-con schedule have? Do they have everyone returning?
 

Redbird222

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Illinois State will have six new players on their roster this season. None will be Freshman, None will be JUCO transfer’s. How many teams in the MVC will have fewer than six new players on their roster with none being Freshman or JUCO? Most teams aside from Drake will be dealing with chemistry issues. If we can’t win with this schedule it will be due to lack of talent not chemistry issues. Check out how many new players Missouri State have, Murray State, and other Valley teams. How many new players will the schools on our non-con schedule have? Do they have everyone

 

Dmills

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The nonconference schedule is weak this year. Hopefully it's a one-year anomaly and not a sign of what to expect in the future.
I wasn't primarily pointing out the weakness of the non-conference. While I am not thrilled with it, that has been discussed here and I am not all that concerned about it. I agree with you all for the most part on that (giving it a pass for year 1).

I was just dismantling the idea that "the valley is bad" and the idea that "most of the conference is in no way measurably better than 75% of the nonconference." It is in fact, the opposite.

Using a weak non-conference schedule as a way to crap on a "Loyola-less Valley" is just weird.
 

Redbirdwarrior

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So the Jank schedule? That didn’t help us in St Louis.
Tell me this right now:

If ISU went, somehow, 25-10 and got an NIT home game in March, would you call this season a success?

I would. In fact, I'd call it a near miracle. For this year, the Jank schedule is EXACTLY what should be in play.
 

Redbirdwarrior

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Lowest Kenpom ranking (2021-22 season) of a current Valley team? 321 (Evansville). Second lowest? 287 (UIC). Third lowest? 230 (Indiana State).

Lowest Kenpom ranking (2021-22 season) of non-conference schedule? 357 (Eastern Illinois). Second lowest? 340 (Chicago State). Third and Fourth lowest? 330 (Northwestern State [x2]). Fifth lowest? 316 (Eastern Michigan). Sixth lowest? 298 (SIUE). Seventh lowest? 267 (Ball St.). Eighth lowest? 250 (Western Illinois).

That is the entirety of non-conference except for Cayman Islands. The third worst Kenpom ranking in the Valley from last year is higher than the best of our non-conference excluding Cayman. That means 73% of our non conference would have been outside the top 10 in the Valley in Kenpom.

Also, during the time when we had our saviors in Loyola (quite recently, in fact), we had a 15 seed in Bradley as our only team in 2019. We would have had another ~15 seed Bradley in 2020 had the tournament been played. This entire narrative is just false.
Do you really think there is a notable jump in weight class from 330 to 250? Like, for real? If you played the 320 team against the 250 team in a 10 game series, what do you think the split is? 6 games to 4 sounds about right to me.

The Valley in 2022 is full of teams that range from holy bad to average mid major, with half in the "bad" to "below average" (sub 150) range. So go learn how to beat teams that are holy bad to regular bad and suddenly you are winning half your conference games.

I'll take a winning season as a big win for this team whether we are playing Duke or Southeastern Nowhere Tech.
 
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Phantom

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Given our history of Jank'd up schedules hurting really good teams, I'm one of the first to be critical of our schedule, with few exceptions.

This is one of those exceptions.

Brand new team, new staff, new regime....we have no idea how good or bad we might be. The schedule isnt sexy but considering all that, it's fine. Get used to playing together, get Pedon's feet wet as a HC, hopefully get some wins and confidence, and see what unfolds in Valley play. Next year, I expect a more challenging schedule, but for this reset button season, it isn't the highest priority. Hell, Pedon even said about as much.
 

Dmills

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Do you really think there is a notable jump in weight class from 330 to 250? Like, for real? If you played the 320 team against the 250 team in a 10 game series, what do you think the split is? 6 games to 4 sounds about right to me.

The Valley in 2022 is full of teams that range from holy bad to average mid major, with half in the "bad" to "below average" (sub 150) range. So go learn how to beat teams that are holy bad to regular bad and suddenly you are winning half your conference games.

I'll take a winning season as a big win for this team whether we are playing Duke or Southeastern Nowhere Tech.
I literally just showed you how there are 2 MVC teams that were within the same range of the non-conference opponents in terms of KenPom. And yes, I would say it is quite a big difference. Your narrative just isn't true.

There were 6 2022-23 MVC teams that finished in the top 100 in KenPom last year. Bradley (96) and SIU (125) were the median teams out of 12. The median teams of our non-conference would be Northwestern State (330) and Eastern Michigan (316) out of 8.

"Most of the conference would be in no way measurably better than 75% of the Redbird non-conference." The exact opposite is true, most of the conference, say 9 out of 12 with the bottom team being Valpo (202) or even 7 out of 12 with the bottom team being SIU (125) is measurably better than 73% of the non-conference (calculation includes 3 games in the Caymans).

You are purposely slighting the Valley in order to prove some point. You originally said "in a Loyola-less Valley" as if we didn't add Belmont and Murray State who will entirely offset that loss. You said the conference champion will likely be a ~14 seed implying that is because we lost Loyola. And finally, you just said the teams in the Valley range from "holy bad to average mid major". There will be a Valley team in the conversation for an at large bid, just like nearly every year. Being in the dance or one of the first 8 teams left out would not be "an average mid major". The average mid-major would just hope to be in the discussion for the NIT and that is being generous, given only 28% of teams (including high majors) make the NCAA tournament or NIT.
 

Metamoron

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Yep. I totally get why Pedon did it. It’s absolutely abysmal to look at, but I get it.

My issue is with posters (Not you phantom), who argue it somehow makes them better than one going 4-6 against the Top 25 (their scenario, not mine) and it helps with an NIT bid.
If we were capable of going 4-6 against top 25s I would not like this schedule. I believe this year, in our first 10 games, with several new players and a new coach, we would go 1-9 IF we had several home games in the mix. This acheduke is fine for this year.
 

Bird Friend

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Do you really think there is a notable jump in weight class from 330 to 250? Like, for real? If you played the 320 team against the 250 team in a 10 game series, what do you think the split is? 6 games to 4 sounds about right to me.

The Valley in 2022 is full of teams that range from holy bad to average mid major, with half in the "bad" to "below average" (sub 150) range. So go learn how to beat teams that are holy bad to regular bad and suddenly you are winning half your conference games.

I'll take a winning season as a big win for this team whether we are playing Duke or Southeastern Nowhere Tech.
Hey! Keep the religious talk out of here. There ain't nothin' holy about our schedule. ;)
 

Redbirdfan06

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Yep. I totally get why Pedon did it. It’s absolutely abysmal to look at, but I get it.

My issue is with posters (Not you phantom), who argue it somehow makes them better than one going 4-6 against the Top 25 (their scenario, not mine) and it helps with an NIT bid.
Nobody said this years schedule would help with an NIT bid. And tell me how a Muller schedule versus a Jank schedule had the team produce better results in the Valley tournament. Playing Maryland and Kentucky close doesn’t mean you wont get bounced out of the Valley tournament by Indiana state in the quarterfinals. There is a whole conference season in between the non conference and Valley tournament.
 
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