2019 Playoffs, In Retrospective

[StLRedbird]

Anyone else think the 'birds got their mojo back in the playoffs? The team plainly imposed their will on a couple pretty decent teams in SEMO and UCA. And, hell, they nearly imposed their will on a very good NDSU team. We didn't stick around long after that game in Fargo, but were told a few times by disparate folks that we put on the best defensive performance against them that they had ever seen. I'm gonna be really disappointed if we don't show up ready to compete against the Illini. I think I'm gonna take in my first spring game in 2020.

I don't think I've seen the Redbirds play this well in three consecutive games since Richmond beat us in the 2015 playoffs. Sure, we've played well at times since then. Northwestern and Colo St can attest to that. But I don't remember seeing us play with this kind of unified intensity since before that Richmond game. Mojo back?

 

[fourthandshort]

Agree it was a very impressive 3 game run, especially given how underwhelming we were in going 8-4, obviously moreso offensively.

We stumbled badly after Davis went down. But once we sort of collected ourselves and the pressure of earning a top 8 seed was gone .. someone else said this ... we accepted and knew what we needed to be and do ... and focus entirely on our run game. It certainly helped playing 2 teams not known for run defense, and certainly not at the level of MVFC .. SEMO was almost too easy, while UCA actually made us work a little more to move the ball. I think this helped our OL focus more easily on our game plan and what they had to do, granted against inferior front 7's until NDSU.

But we will again have to endure the MVFC gauntlet next year and without Robinson this time. So we still have to figure out our pass game, even more crucial next year.

But this playoff run was certainnly a treat for fans, not quite like 2014, but up there with 2012 and better than 2015. Speaking of 2014 .. here is a distinction to brag about .. our only 2 playoff games against NDSU, we lost by 2 and 6, and had a chance to win both games ... no one else can say that.

Well done Redbirds !!!!!!!

 

[Birdswin]

Very good observation and analysis Stl - that is the type of "run" and play in the playoffs that translates to the next year. With 17 starters back - they have a taste of what it took. This has to be good going into the off-season and then the trip to Champaign.

 

[fourthandshort]

Agree it was a very impressive 3 game run, especially given how underwhelming we were in going 8-4, obviously moreso offensively.

We stumbled badly after Davis went down. But once we sort of collected ourselves and the pressure of earning a top 8 seed was gone .. someone else said this ... we accepted and knew what we needed to be and do ... and focus entirely on our run game. It certainly helped playing 2 teams not known for run defense, and certainly not at the level of MVFC .. SEMO was almost too easy, while UCA actually made us work a little more to move the ball. I think this helped our OL focus more easily on our game plan and what they had to do, granted against inferior front 7's until NDSU.

But we will again have to endure the MVFC gauntlet next year and without Robinson this time. So we still have to figure out our pass game, even more crucial next year.

But this playoff run was certainnly a treat for fans, not quite like 2014, but up there with 2012 and better than 2015. Speaking of 2014 .. here is a distinction to brag about .. our only 2 playoff games against NDSU, we lost by 2 and 6, and had a chance to win both games ... no one else can say that.

Well done Redbirds !!!!!!!

Oops ... except JMU. They are 1-2 I believe and one of those losses was pretty close.

 

[Adunk33]

During the NDSU game, I felt it was the National title game. No one was going to touch the Bizon. I’ll take them by at least 2 TDS in the Natty.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

I think adversity can be a great motivating factor. The "they are all against us" mindset. After the MO State second half, the YSU game and barely getting into the playoffs it was either go quietly into that good night or rage against the coming of the light (memories of English Lit class). I think the team and coaches stepped up and focused maybe more than during the season. The Defense knew the offense was one dimensional and they had to just shut down opposing offenses. To me, it was Robinson and the O-Line that were the men. There was zero passing game and they all knew it. They were either going to run over people or go home. The coaches I think zeroed in on what they could really do and their game plans were effective. I think during the regular season it was not so much the case. They came very close to pulling off an amazing upset and had a great run. Football is an emotional and mental game. Lot's of more talented teams have been upset by that team with less talent but something that bound them all together and gave them united purpose and focus. I think that is what happened to the 2019 Redbirds in the playoffs. Think about it...a team with no passing threat what so ever and everybody knows it...wins two playoffs games and pushes the #1 team in the country to the limit and had a chance to win it all three games on the road. Incredible!

 

[Sanantoniobird]

During the NDSU game, I felt it was the National title game. No one was going to touch the Bizon. I’ll take them by at least 2 TDS in the Natty.

The talking heads (Sam Herder, Craig Haley, Brian Mac) were talking about how Montana St had a better offense and a comparable defense to ISU. I think I was the only one tweeting back at them how ISU was soo much better and the defense NDSU ran into was elite. I told them "NDSU by 2 TDs against MSU!" I was wrong...it was way more TDs.

 

[fourthandshort]

During the NDSU game, I felt it was the National title game. No one was going to touch the Bizon. I’ll take them by at least 2 TDS in the Natty.

The talking heads (Sam Herder, Craig Haley, Brian Mac) were talking about how Montana St had a better offense and a comparable defense to ISU. I think I was the only one tweeting back at them how ISU was soo much better and the defense NDSU ran into was elite. I told them "NDSU by 2 TDs against MSU!" I was wrong...it was way more TDs.

you'd think people who follow the FCS game closely would know by now that the upper half of MVFC is clearly more elite when it comes to overall line play.

I've been on AGS more than usual this year advocating MVFC based on this one simple fact, which posted on one of these threads ... MVFC playoff record since 2011, when I believe MVFC became the top conference, taking those reins from Colonial for the previous decade. NDSU is like 26-1 in playoffs since 2011. The rest of of MVFC excl NDSU is 25-12 in OOC playoff games since 2011. No other conference is close including their respective top programs .. most, except Colonial, are even further away excluding their top program .. like Big Sky excl EWU or Southland excl SHSU.

Aside from all the computer polls on Massey Composite of 40 polls, which also has saud we are the top conference every year since 2011 ... but this 25-12 OOC playoff record is 100% proof of this. Our loss count of 12 more than doubles when you add our MVFC head-to-head games .. cannibalism .. or we would have had some teams go even further and get more wins.

I'll find my data and post it here sometime soon. It is so compelling IMO.

 

[StLRedbird]

I thought we had a team that was built for a deep playoff run, but lacked the consistency to do it. That was before we lost Davis, Proctor, etc. After that, I was shocked at how overwhelmed Baltz was when he stepped in at QB. Hindsight is often perfect, but maybe we should've went to Jefferson sooner. Spack loyal to a fault?

Anyway, the draw we got in the playoffs was perfect for this team. They were presented with two teams that they could physically dominate, and they did just that. The real opportunity was the playing time that was suddenly available to the QBs and RBs on the depth chart. All those folks got valuable minutes that could help their development

And then there was the chance to take another crack at the Bison. The team proved they could compete with the leviathan from Fargo. There's some swagger in knowing that, right? All of this makes me very hopeful for 2020. It's a critical year for Spack and the program. Time to get it rollin' again.

 

[fourthandshort]

I thought we had a team that was built for a deep playoff run, but lacked the consistency to do it. That was before we lost Davis, Proctor, etc. After that, I was shocked at how overwhelmed Baltz was when he stepped in at QB. Hindsight is often perfect, but maybe we should've went to Jefferson sooner. Spack loyal to a fault?

Anyway, the draw we got in the playoffs was perfect for this team. They were presented with two teams that they could physically dominate, and they did just that. The real opportunity was the playing time that was suddenly available to the QBs and RBs on the depth chart. All those folks got valuable minutes that could help their development

And then there was the chance to take another crack at the Bison. The team proved they could compete with the leviathan from Fargo. There's some swagger in knowing that, right? All of this makes me very hopeful for 2020. It's a critical year for Spack and the program. Time to get it rollin' again.

Jefferson had been recently demoted from 2nd to 3rd string .. my guess is it was a motivational ploy and a way to get Baltz more #2 reps in practice. Because why would they make Baltz #2 if the goal was to redshirt him ??

IMO the mistake was not so much in assessing Jefferson, it was in their assessment of Baltz being ready for #2. I haven't ruled on Baltz becoming a decent starter, but he clearly wasn;t ready. As for Jefferson, Spack said one of their concerns with Jefferson is that he didn't show enough of a sense of urgency ... they said he was too relaxed. Maybe they were trying to light a fire in him by demoting him.

Bottom line, we have to get better at recruiting and developing our QBs. It is the one position that is keeping us from going 8-3 more often, and playoff runs.

Next year, we will see what life is like after Robinson. We will need to step up our pass game, and I like our young WR group. I also like our young RB group, but it will be very young. I like Proctor, but I'm not sure he will be able to carry a heavy load ... he seems like a 15 carry per game guy .. maybe he's more ready to carry a load than I think. But I'm looking forward to seeing the trio of true FR RB get their shots and see who emerges soonest: Phaleak Brown, Cole Mueller, Nigel White .. plus RS FR Kevin Brown.

Great finish after a underwhleming regular season. The defense returns 9 of 11 starters, and it has depth, except at LB group. Going to be interesting to see how our offense adjust for life after Robinson.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

I thought we had a team that was built for a deep playoff run, but lacked the consistency to do it. That was before we lost Davis, Proctor, etc. After that, I was shocked at how overwhelmed Baltz was when he stepped in at QB. Hindsight is often perfect, but maybe we should've went to Jefferson sooner. Spack loyal to a fault?

Anyway, the draw we got in the playoffs was perfect for this team. They were presented with two teams that they could physically dominate, and they did just that. The real opportunity was the playing time that was suddenly available to the QBs and RBs on the depth chart. All those folks got valuable minutes that could help their development

And then there was the chance to take another crack at the Bison. The team proved they could compete with the leviathan from Fargo. There's some swagger in knowing that, right? All of this makes me very hopeful for 2020. It's a critical year for Spack and the program. Time to get it rollin' again.

Jefferson had been recently demoted from 2nd to 3rd string .. my guess is it was a motivational ploy and a way to get Baltz more #2 reps in practice. Because why would they make Baltz #2 if the goal was to redshirt him ??

IMO the mistake was not so much in assessing Jefferson, it was in their assessment of Baltz being ready for #2. I haven't ruled on Baltz becoming a decent starter, but he clearly wasn;t ready. As for Jefferson, Spack said one of their concerns with Jefferson is that he didn't show enough of a sense of urgency ... they said he was too relaxed. Maybe they were trying to light a fire in him by demoting him.

Bottom line, we have to get better at recruiting and developing our QBs. It is the one position that is keeping us from going 8-3 more often, and playoff runs.

Next year, we will see what life is like after Robinson. We will need to step up our pass game, and I like our young WR group. I also like our young RB group, but it will be very young. I like Proctor, but I'm not sure he will be able to carry a heavy load ... he seems like a 15 carry per game guy .. maybe he's more ready to carry a load than I think. But I'm looking forward to seeing the trio of true FR RB get their shots and see who emerges soonest: Phaleak Brown, Cole Mueller, Nigel White .. plus RS FR Kevin Brown.

Great finish after a underwhleming regular season. The defense returns 9 of 11 starters, and it has depth, except at LB group. Going to be interesting to see how our offense adjust for life after Robinson.

Next year I am expecting the Birds to be a running back by numbers offense. Proctor, if he recovers fully, is probably the starter but I expect to see quite a few running backs play at least early on. What is and has been going on at the QB position...I have no idea. While Jefferson played well in the playoffs we also saw that his passing skills are not consistent. The game plans barely called for him to pass at all and injuries to the receiving corps did not help. My own opinion is that they thought Baltz was ready and were willing to burn his redshirt until the fiasco at YSU. Baltz obviously was not ready and the coaching staff should have known that. I have no doubt that he likely is a better passer than Jefferson but he was overwhelmed mentally and that was very apparent at YSU. That is not a hit on his potential, he is a true freshman and needs time. Davis, if healthy, is the starter next year but what about the backup? Does Jefferson remain with the team? Does Spack do his usual move and take a QB that cant throw the ball effectively and move him to the defensive backfield? Will Baltz be more prepared with a spring under his belt. I expect Davis will not be ready by spring ball so Baltz and Jefferson should get a lot of reps. If Davis is healthy can he be more consistent than he was in 2019? He was up and down early and seemed to be getting in a comfort zone before the injury. He played a pretty decent first half against MO State before the wheels came off the offense in the 2nd half. The bottom line for me is I think the QB situation is a big question mark across the board and their Achilles heel. Spack needs to show he can address the passing game and QB recruitment and development. Otherwise I see no progress in getting over the hump and winning a championship, conference or National. You need a solid QB and backup that can play....you just do.

 

[fourthandshort]

VARedbird .. Obviously I agree. The best thing about Davis rehab is how much it will help the development of Jefferson and Baltz this spring .. which could reap dividends in 2021 or even 2020.

But Davis needs reps with this young potent receiver and TE group. Hard to get that live action in summer OTAs like you do in spring ball. So that will hurt us for 2020.

In meantime, our coaches need get better at evaluating their QBs preparedness. This means recognizing how much harder it is to assess pocket presence when it is rarely truly live action for QB .. I'm sure Baltz is decent thrower but he was not ready for a live hostile pocket. Jefferson clearly was more ready but still lacking.

On flipside fir spring, our young RBs will get a chance to show what they can do against a very good returning defense .. we might have one of the best DL groups in FCS next year ... our top 5 DL all return.. and you can bet another player will emerge at some point.

And being Davis biggest critic, I also thought he was starting to settle in some. Just wish he was going to be part of spring ball.

 

[StLRedbird]

Next year I am expecting the Birds to be a running back by numbers offense. Proctor, if he recovers fully, is probably the starter but I expect to see quite a few running backs play at least early on. What is and has been going on at the QB position...I have no idea. While Jefferson played well in the playoffs we also saw that his passing skills are not consistent. The game plans barely called for him to pass at all and injuries to the receiving corps did not help. My own opinion is that they thought Baltz was ready and were willing to burn his redshirt until the fiasco at YSU. Baltz obviously was not ready and the coaching staff should have known that. I have no doubt that he likely is a better passer than Jefferson but he was overwhelmed mentally and that was very apparent at YSU. That is not a hit on his potential, he is a true freshman and needs time. Davis, if healthy, is the starter next year but what about the backup? Does Jefferson remain with the team? Does Spack do his usual move and take a QB that cant throw the ball effectively and move him to the defensive backfield? Will Baltz be more prepared with a spring under his belt. I expect Davis will not be ready by spring ball so Baltz and Jefferson should get a lot of reps. If Davis is healthy can he be more consistent than he was in 2019? He was up and down early and seemed to be getting in a comfort zone before the injury. He played a pretty decent first half against MO State before the wheels came off the offense in the 2nd half. The bottom line for me is I think the QB situation is a big question mark across the board and their Achilles heel. Spack needs to show he can address the passing game and QB recruitment and development. Otherwise I see no progress in getting over the hump and winning a championship, conference or National. You need a solid QB and backup that can play....you just do.

I thought that more RBs saw action in the playoffs. It was restricted to the Browns, with Kevin seeing more action early on and Pha'leak getting all the carries backing up JR against NDSU. Neither acquitted himself in an encouraging fashion.

MSU
K Brown - 2 carries for 6 yds (3.0)
P Brown - 1 carry for 0 yd (0.0)
@YSU
K Brown - 2 carries for 8 yds (4.0)
P Brown - 1 carry for 1 yd (1.0)
@SEMO
K Brown - 8 carries for 30 yds (3.8)
@UCA
K Brown - 4 carries for 13 yds (3.3)
@NDSU
P Brown - 4 carries for 5 yds (1.3)

Overall, not great. In 22 carries backing up JR after Proctor went down we gained 63 yds.

 

[MadBird]

Next year I am expecting the Birds to be a running back by numbers offense. Proctor, if he recovers fully, is probably the starter but I expect to see quite a few running backs play at least early on. What is and has been going on at the QB position...I have no idea. While Jefferson played well in the playoffs we also saw that his passing skills are not consistent. The game plans barely called for him to pass at all and injuries to the receiving corps did not help. My own opinion is that they thought Baltz was ready and were willing to burn his redshirt until the fiasco at YSU. Baltz obviously was not ready and the coaching staff should have known that. I have no doubt that he likely is a better passer than Jefferson but he was overwhelmed mentally and that was very apparent at YSU. That is not a hit on his potential, he is a true freshman and needs time. Davis, if healthy, is the starter next year but what about the backup? Does Jefferson remain with the team? Does Spack do his usual move and take a QB that cant throw the ball effectively and move him to the defensive backfield? Will Baltz be more prepared with a spring under his belt. I expect Davis will not be ready by spring ball so Baltz and Jefferson should get a lot of reps. If Davis is healthy can he be more consistent than he was in 2019? He was up and down early and seemed to be getting in a comfort zone before the injury. He played a pretty decent first half against MO State before the wheels came off the offense in the 2nd half. The bottom line for me is I think the QB situation is a big question mark across the board and their Achilles heel. Spack needs to show he can address the passing game and QB recruitment and development. Otherwise I see no progress in getting over the hump and winning a championship, conference or National. You need a solid QB and backup that can play....you just do.

I thought that more RBs saw action in the playoffs. It was restricted to the Browns, with Kevin seeing more action early on and Pha'leak getting all the carries backing up JR against NDSU. Neither acquitted himself in an encouraging fashion.

MSU
K Brown - 2 carries for 6 yds (3.0)
P Brown - 1 carry for 0 yd (0.0)
@YSU
K Brown - 2 carries for 8 yds (4.0)
P Brown - 1 carry for 1 yd (1.0)
@SEMO
K Brown - 8 carries for 30 yds (3.8)
@UCA
K Brown - 4 carries for 13 yds (3.3)
@NDSU
P Brown - 4 carries for 5 yds (1.3)

Overall, not great. In 22 carries backing up JR after Proctor went down we gained 63 yds.

Yes, but, but, but . . .

One a RS freshman walk-on (or former walk on), the other a true freshman. Pretty green.

Markel Smith gained nearly 1100 yards for Missouri Western, Jordan Birch only 105 in 6 games for Emporia State.

 

[StLRedbird]

Yes, but, but, but . . .

One a RS freshman walk-on (or former walk on), the other a true freshman. Pretty green.

Markel Smith gained nearly 1100 yards for Missouri Western, Jordan Birch only 105 in 6 games for Emporia State.

Hard to fault a guy that wants to play leaving to get it, but it's fun to think about Robinson and Smith in the same backfield. That's a big difference between us and NDSU right now. We didn't have the backups - for whatever reason - to have a good shot at taking them down. Winning is the antidote to guys not wanting to wait their turn.

 

[Sanantoniobird]

that would have been one heckuva 3 headed monster with JR, Proctor and Smith.
We need a pass game no matter what, and I saw an article mid-season that made some sense on why it should be good next year. I'll have to find it to source it; but (IMO) it shouldn't come down to if we have the people to catch the ball...it's a matter of who's going to get it to them.

 

[fourthandshort]

that would have been one heckuva 3 headed monster with JR, Proctor and Smith.
We need a pass game no matter what, and I saw an article mid-season that made some sense on why it should be good next year. I'll have to find it to source it; but (IMO) it shouldn't come down to if we have the people to catch the ball...it's a matter of who's going to get it to them.

Agreed .... I really like the potential for our very young WR group ... I think it will be good (not great) next year, and then has the potential to be very good by 2021 .. lot of true FR, RS FR, and RS SO this year with some skills. Just need to put a little more weight on some of those lean frames and get some much needed experience ... oh, and then someone to throw them the ball like you said.

Same for our RB group, though further behind than WRs and will probably take 2 years to truly materialize. So I think 2020 is going to be spotty at RB position. If true, we're really going to need our OL and pass game to step things up a notch in 2020.

This is why Davis rehab presumably removing him from spring ball is going to hurt our chances for next fall on offense IMO. Missing the timing and feel with those live reps with Davis will hurt us some. Not saying we are doomed for next fall, but more likely to be a work in progress. This puts more pressure summer OTAs and then on fall camp assuming Davis is ready to go 100% by then.