Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?! We're talking about PLAYOFFS?!

[topiarydan]

A 7-4 record will get us in - we narrowly lost to siu and beat uni on road (which is a quality win on road). Indy State game will be key - they are no pushover

 

[Manchester Matt]

I know I’m getting criticized for being apprehensive about us getting in. So here’s an outside perspective after this weekend’s games. Three MVFC teams and we aren’t even mentioned.

Week 7 FCS Football Bracketology Breakdown

www.collegesportsmadness.com

 

[redbirds2000]

I know I’m getting criticized for being apprehensive about us getting in. So here’s an outside perspective after this weekend’s games. Three MVFC teams and we aren’t even mentioned.

Week 7 FCS Football Bracketology Breakdown

www.collegesportsmadness.com

I'm starting to agree with you on this. We need YSU to keeping winning. Other than SDSU and NDSU, that's our only possibility of a "good" win.

 

[redbirds2000]

Coming into the season I was thinking 6-5, Going 4-2 in the valley (outside of SDSU and NDSU).

Will we be favored in each of tthe 3 games vs InSU, WIU, and YSU? Probably. That said it’s likely going to be 3 close games. InSU concerns me the most

If they get beat by 1-5 Indy State, not making the playoffs is the least of their worries. Que the "but Indy State has played everyone so closely" line. Doesn't matter. If they are a playoff team, they go into Terra Haute and take care of business.

 

[fourthandshort]

I'm starting to agree with you on this. We need YSU to keeping winning. Other than SDSU and NDSU, that's our only possibility of a "good" win.

The reason we aren't being talked about yet on this site is we aren't yet in the picture. Plus we got written off after the Valpo win. And they aren't expecting us to go 7-4. Most of us are saying, IF we go 7-4, we are in.

Noting, they only have 3 MVFC teams going to playoffs, which is highly unlikely. They also have 25 teams in the playoffs with 6 going from the Colonial ... so their math is off.

And what they aren't doing is factoring in how poorly the Colonial has done in the playoffs versus how well the MVFC has done the last 5 and even 10 years. And their only recent success in playoffs is JMU, whi is gone.

And I'm pretty sure the selection committee will remember all the talk of the MVFC demise in 2019. The demise was the talk of the online media because of the war of attrition that occurred that year.

As for Fall 2021 playoffs .. MVFC got 6 teams, Big Sky got 5 teams, and Colonial got just 2 teams.

.. MVFC went 8-5 overall, and 6-3 against non-MVFC teams. So 2 of 6 got knocked out by MVFC teams. The other 3 got knocked out by 2 very good Big Sky teams and #12 TN Martin (MoST). SDSU didn't get a top 8 seed, but made final 4 beating #5 Villanova by 14. Only MoST went 0-1 against non-MVFC teams losing to #12 TN Martin on road in 1st round.

.. Big Sky went 5-5 overall, and 4-4 to non Big Sky teams .. but all of their 4 losses came against top ranked MVFC teams (3) and JMU.

.. Colonial went 3-2, with both losses coming to MVFC teams. And their best team of last 5+ years is JMU and they left.

The Selection Committee remembers these things as they weigh who gets in and how many come from each conference. Colonia will gget more bids this year, but they will not get the 6 this site is claiming. They might get 4, and we'll see if they crap the bed again with JMU gone.

 

[Manchester Matt]

The reason we aren't being talked about yet on this site is we aren't yet in the picture. Plus we got written off after the Valpo win. And they aren't expecting us to go 7-4. Most of us are saying, IF we go 7-4, we are in.

Noting, they only have 3 MVFC teams going to playoffs, which is highly unlikely. They also have 25 teams in the playoffs with 6 going from the Colonial ... so their math is off.

And what they aren't doing is factoring in how poorly the Colonial has done in the playoffs versus how well the MVFC has done the last 5 and even 10 years. And their only recent success in playoffs is JMU, whi is gone.

And I'm pretty sure the selection committee will remember all the talk of the MVFC demise in 2019. The demise was the talk of the online media because of the war of attrition that occurred that year.

As for Fall 2021 playoffs .. MVFC got 6 teams, Big Sky got 5 teams, and Colonial got just 2 teams.

.. MVFC went 8-5 overall, and 6-3 against non-MVFC teams. So 2 of 6 got knocked out by MVFC teams. The other 3 got knocked out by 2 very good Big Sky teams and #12 TN Martin (MoST). SDSU didn't get a top 8 seed, but made final 4 beating #5 Villanova by 14. Only MoST went 0-1 against non-MVFC teams losing to #12 TN Martin on road in 1st round.

.. Big Sky went 5-5 overall, and 4-4 to non Big Sky teams .. but all of their 4 losses came against top ranked MVFC teams (3) and JMU.

.. Colonial went 3-2, with both losses coming to MVFC teams. And their best team of last 5+ years is JMU and they left.

The Selection Committee remembers these things as they weigh who gets in and how many come from each conference. Colonia will gget more bids this year, but they will not get the 6 this site is claiming. They might get 4, and we'll see if they crap the bed again with JMU gone.

That's all fine and dandy, but it seems like your biggest argument for us making the playoffs is how good NDSU and SDSU are this year/were in last year's postseason. Seven wins of the 8-5 postseason last year came from those two schools. UNI lost in the opening round to a non-MVFC team. Missouri State lostat home in the opening round to a non-MVFC team. The league isn't as good from a depth perspective as it was last year or in any recent years. There are two elite teams, a third likely playoff team, SIU, who has a 35-point loss to Incarnate Word and a home loss to SEMO, and then ISU, UND, YSU, who have an outside shot to make it if things go right, and then a bunch of other schools who have no chance.

Those saying that our resume sucks are also assuming we finish 7-4. I'm one of those who believe that will be our final record. If so, our best win could be at 5-6 UNI or a home victory against 5-6/6-5 YSU. Eastern just lost to freaking Lindenwood at home! Outside of ISU playing in a conference with NDSU and SDSU, what is attractive? Seriously. Tell me something about ISU, not just the historical dominance of a league with an overall record of 34-36 this year. If I'm on the committee, I look at a resume with a close win over Valpo and wins over Eastern, UNI, USD, Indiana State, YSU and WIU and just don't see the quality.

I really think we need to win in Brookings or Fargo.

 

[Redbird28]

I don't think you should downplay the UNI game completely - primarily because they have only lost a grand total of 62 games on their home field since they opened it in 1976. Tough place to go get a W. They're getting ready to enter a 4 game stretch where they have a shot at knocking off Missouri St., SIU, SDSU, SD. They're definitely in a situation where they have to win out just to get to 7-4, but if they somehow manage to make it happen then all the sudden our win there looks even bigger.

Another possible question; If SDSU continues their current run over the next 3 weeks and is sitting at 9-1, how relentless will they be in the final week of the regular season with their playoff bid and seeding likely locked up? At some point prior to or even in our game, will they rest some guys headed into the playoff to make sure everyone is 100% healthy? Not sure if they'd do it at the expense of Senior Day, but it's still something to think about.

As far as we go, just go take care of business the rest of the way. Plug away, win games, and control what we can control.

 

[MadBird]

If I'm on the committee, I look at a resume with a close win over Valpo and wins over Eastern, UNI, USD, Indiana State, YSU and WIU and just don't see the quality.

I really think we need to win in Brookings or Fargo.

Just for discussion sake, what if we have a loss in Terre Haute, with a win in Brookings or Fargo?

Also:

South Dakota St. has beaten 2-4 Cal Davis, 4-2 Butler (with a 1 point win over Valpo), 2-4 Mo.State, 0-6 WIU, 1-5 SoDakota to go with their great win at Fargo, 5-2. Loss to Big 10+ Iowa. Wins over teams with a combined record of 14-23?

North Dakota St. has beaten 0-7 Drake, 3-3 No.Carolina A&T, 1-5 SoDakota, 3-3 YSU, 1-5 InSU. Losses to Arizona and SDSU. Wins over teams with a combined record of 8-23?

ISU has beaten 3-3 Valpo, 2-4 EIU, 3-4 UNI, 1-5 SoDakota. Losses to UW and SIU. Wins over teams with a combined 9-16?

So, nobody has beaten up on the top tier here, it seems. Except I guess the Jackrabbits, and take out the NDSU win and they're pretty ordinary.

 

[ISUBU]

But it is also where you start.

We haven't been "hurt" by a close win over Valpo. We didn't start anywhere near the top 25 because of Spring and Fall 2021. We are starting to get notice by the pollsters, so in effect we have been moving up.

Assuming we play as expected, the challenge for us in reaching the playoffs will be several Big Sky and CAA teams who will be 8-3 or better.

 

[Manchester Matt]

Just for discussion sake, what if we have a loss in Terre Haute, with a win in Brookings or Fargo?

Also:

South Dakota St. has beaten 2-4 Cal Davis, 4-2 Butler (with a 1 point win over Valpo), 2-4 Mo.State, 0-6 WIU, 1-5 SoDakota to go with their great win at Fargo, 5-2. Loss to Big 10+ Iowa. Wins over teams with a combined record of 14-23?

North Dakota St. has beaten 0-7 Drake, 3-3 No.Carolina A&T, 1-5 SoDakota, 3-3 YSU, 1-5 InSU. Losses to Arizona and SDSU. Wins over teams with a combined record of 8-23?

ISU has beaten 3-3 Valpo, 2-4 EIU, 3-4 UNI, 1-5 SoDakota. Losses to UW and SIU. Wins over teams with a combined 9-16?

So, nobody has beaten up on the top tier here, it seems. Except I guess the Jackrabbits, and take out the NDSU win and they're pretty ordinary.

I think we are in at 7-4 with a win at one of the Dakotas and a loss to say InSU or YSU.

New coaches poll was released and ISU got two votes. The Redbirds got less votes in the FCS Stats media poll this week after a win. We just aren't moving the needle with close wins against the teams we are playing. That's why I think we need a huge upset.

 

[MadBird]

My point was, what are the playoff prospects if we're 7-4 with a loss at InSU but a win at one of the Dakotas? Is that better than running the table vs. everyone else, but two losses on the prairie?

So, 7-4 with a win at InSU and home wins vs. YSU and WIU, but 2 losses up north

VS.

7-4 with a "bad loss" at InSU, 2 home wins, but an upset win up north?

Does the committee look at those 7-4 records differently?

 

[Manchester Matt]

My point was, what are the playoff prospects if we're 7-4 with a loss at InSU but a win at one of the Dakotas? Is that better than running the table vs. everyone else, but two losses on the prairie?

So, 7-4 with a win at InSU and home wins vs. YSU and WIU, but 2 losses up north

VS.

7-4 with a "bad loss" at InSU, 2 home wins, but an upset win up north?

Does the committee look at those 7-4 records differently?

100 percent yes. I think we are out with the top scenario and in with the bottom.

 

[Redbird222]

FWIW Sagarin had MVC ranked ahead of Big Sky and Colonial. They have ASUN and Southern ahead of Colonial.

College Football Ratings Page

I thought I saw somewhere after the South Dakota win that ISU is 25th FCS team per Sagarin. I cannot recall where I read that. This listing has FBS and FCS team listed together and I didn't take the time to figure out where iSU falls amongst FCS

 

[fourthandshort]

That's all fine and dandy, but it seems like your biggest argument for us making the playoffs is how good NDSU and SDSU are this year/were in last year's postseason. Seven wins of the 8-5 postseason last year came from those two schools. UNI lost in the opening round to a non-MVFC team. Missouri State lostat home in the opening round to a non-MVFC team. The league isn't as good from a depth perspective as it was last year or in any recent years. There are two elite teams, a third likely playoff team, SIU, who has a 35-point loss to Incarnate Word and a home loss to SEMO, and then ISU, UND, YSU, who have an outside shot to make it if things go right, and then a bunch of other schools who have no chance.

Those saying that our resume sucks are also assuming we finish 7-4. I'm one of those who believe that will be our final record. If so, our best win could be at 5-6 UNI or a home victory against 5-6/6-5 YSU. Eastern just lost to freaking Lindenwood at home! Outside of ISU playing in a conference with NDSU and SDSU, what is attractive? Seriously. Tell me something about ISU, not just the historical dominance of a league with an overall record of 34-36 this year. If I'm on the committee, I look at a resume with a close win over Valpo and wins over Eastern, UNI, USD, Indiana State, YSU and WIU and just don't see the quality.

I really think we need to win in Brookings or Fargo.

Fair skepticism if you haven't followed the playoff selection process as close as I or others have .. fair warning, I may be the most obsessed with this topic on this board. Though Ive dialed it down some since MVFC finally started getting more bids the last few years, than they used to get.

Anyway, I still feel like your missing the 2 broader points:

1. how proven MVFC is in playoffs over the last decade and recent years .. and not just NDSU and SDSU. The selection committee knows this now.
2. when it comes down to the final 4-6 at large bids, with say 8-10 in the hunt ... all 8-10 have warts. Right now, you are focused on our warts as if the other teams won't have any.

The only conference now close to MVFC (excl NDSU) is the Big Sky the past 3-4 years .. and this year looks like more of same. So there is no way the committee will give Colonial 6 teams, much less 5 .. they too will have war of attrition as the last 5 conf games play out.

But the committee has a good memory for who wins in playoffs and who doesn't - translated, who makes their picks look good or bad. Colonial was THE conference in the 2000's, and the residual effect of that dominance carried well into the 2010s. To the point where they kept getting 4 to 6 bids and wound up with collective playoff records of like 3-5, 2-5, 3-6, etc. While MVFC was getting 2-3 bids at most each year. And our record kept mounting. The only reason we finally got 5 bids in 2014 was because we went 23-1 in OOC, and we dominated in playoffs and most years since we took over for Colonial and started getting 4-6 teams .. our 4-6 bids have always been justified based on our results.

Note I used to crunch these numbers ... but our playoff record since 2010 EXCLuding NDSU and MVFC head to head is about a .650 win % against the rest of the conferences combined. I haven't crunched those numbers in a few years, so at some point I'll update this playoff result.

So this is why 4-4 in the MVFC is viewed with much higher regard than most other conferences .. so 5-3 becomes a lock unless we crapped the bed in OOC or some of our conf losses. It is possible MVFC is not living up to pre season expectations, but I still think this is playing like a 4-5 bid year right now: SDSU, NDSU, UND, SIU and then ISUr, YSU both in the hunt IMO.

 

[DaveBird10]

For what its worth Massey has the following

ISU- 24 with the following as the last 3 teams we played

SIU- 9
UNI- 25
USD- 35

UNI plays MO STATE this Saturday who is 29th in Massey. With UNI being 3-4 and MO STATE being 2-4 (and still getting some love in top 25 polls). I would like nothing more then to see UNI win that game at home and knock MO STATE out of contention at 2-5 and 0-4 in MVFC and a pretty favorable schedule coming up.

I am trying not to overthink it, I think that a MVFC team that's 7-4 and 5-3 in conference with loses to 3 top 10 teams and a FBS team would look pretty favorable as an at-large bid for the playoffs.

 

[Manchester Matt]

Fair skepticism if you haven't followed the playoff selection process as close as I or others have .. fair warning, I may be the most obsessed with this topic on this board. Though Ive dialed it down some since MVFC finally started getting more bids the last few years, than they used to get.

Anyway, I still feel like your missing the 2 broader points:

1. how proven MVFC is in playoffs over the last decade and recent years .. and not just NDSU and SDSU. The selection committee knows this now.
2. when it comes down to the final 4-6 at large bids, with say 8-10 in the hunt ... all 8-10 have warts. Right now, you are focused on our warts as if the other teams won't have any.

The only conference now close to MVFC (excl NDSU) is the Big Sky the past 3-4 years .. and this year looks like more of same. So there is no way the committee will give Colonial 6 teams, much less 5 .. they too will have war of attrition as the last 5 conf games play out.

But the committee has a good memory for who wins in playoffs and who doesn't - translated, who makes their picks look good or bad. Colonial was THE conference in the 2000's, and the residual effect of that dominance carried well into the 2010s. To the point where they kept getting 4 to 6 bids and wound up with collective playoff records of like 3-5, 2-5, 3-6, etc. While MVFC was getting 2-3 bids at most each year. And our record kept mounting. The only reason we finally got 5 bids in 2014 was because we went 23-1 in OOC, and we dominated in playoffs and most years since we took over for Colonial and started getting 4-6 teams .. our 4-6 bids have always been justified based on our results.

Note I used to crunch these numbers ... but our playoff record since 2010 EXCLuding NDSU and MVFC head to head is about a .650 win % against the rest of the conferences combined. I haven't crunched those numbers in a few years, so at some point I'll update this playoff result.

So this is why 4-4 in the MVFC is viewed with much higher regard than most other conferences .. so 5-3 becomes a lock unless we crapped the bed in OOC or some of our losses. It is possible MVFC is not living up to pre season expectations, but I still think this is playing like a 5 bid year.

Never said the other teams don't have any. This is an ISU message board, so I'm going to examine our resume more than I would Furman or SE Louisiana. I've yet to really here you give a reason why ISU should be in other than the conference they play in. You have a four graph response to my message and NOTHING has anything to do with ISU's season.

So what is it? And why aren't the coaches/ane media members buying it?

 

[isuquinndog]

One person's view, though their bio makes it seem like they know the MVFC well. FCS Football Bracketology

 

[fourthandshort]

Never said the other teams don't have any. This is an ISU message board, so I'm going to examine our resume more than I would Furman or SE Louisiana. I've yet to really here you give a reason why ISU should be in other than the conference they play in. You have a four graph response to my message and NOTHING has anything to do with ISU's season.

So what is it? And why aren't the coaches/ane media members buying it?

As to why other's aren't saying it ... I pointed out earlier, this notion of making playoffs is based on the assumption we finish 7-4. I'm not predicting we will finish 7-4. I am merely saying, if we do, we will have very strong case for an at large bid based on the recent historical evidence of the FCS selection committee's criteria favoring strongest conferences.

So with that said, I'm not predicting we will make the playoffs at this point .. I think we have a little better than 50/50 shot. IMO, we have about a 60/40 chance of winning all 3 we hope to win. And I think about a 95/5 probability we will likely lose to both NDSU and SDSU. Frankly, we need to show more improvement on offense and special teams, plus stay healthy (RB Wright for sure) to ensure our chances of going 3-2 to finish 7-4 / 5-3.

In the end, you are refuting my (and a few others) argument that 7-4 / 5-3 will very likely get us bid, by virtue of our conference strength. That's fine, but you are ignoring the most relevant set of facts ... it is very hard to win in the MVFC and the FCS selection committee knows this. A

Also noting, I think there's 10 or 11 conferences with 24 bids .. 10 autos (I think) and 14 at large. So maybe 2.4 bids per conf. Many conferences will only get 1 team, the auto bid. The rest fall to the best conferences .. in order: MVFC, Big Sky, Colonial, Southern ... then all the rest will get 1, maybe 2. Those 14 at large bids have to go somewhere .. again, everyone on the bubble has warts. Being in MVFC and on the bubble usually weighs in our favor ... not my call or opinion. That's just been the way it plays out in recent years.

Plus I'm pretty sure it has been about 8 or 9 years since a 7-4 / 5-3 or better MVFC team has been left out of playoffs ... maybe that is the answer your looking for ?

 

[TBS_20]

But yet we complain about the ncaa tournament. At least we're in the best of the next

 

[Redbirdwarrior]

I have to think that 7-4 puts ISU at, probably, #23 or #24 at the end of the season, which- I think we can all admit- was a not expected by hardly any of us here or anyone outside of the locker room. If we go 7-4, end the season in the T25 and don't make the playoffs, I still consider the year just a huge W.

I'd LIKE to make the playoffs and have a hard time thinking that we wouldn't at 7-4 (especially if one of those 7 happens to occur in a Dakota), but I didn't expect us to have a winning record this year, much less be pushing for a playoff spot.

Great job to Spack and co. Keep it up.